Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto Pick, 08/09/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 109 Odds

Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto

UFC Vegas 109

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Miles Johns will enter the Octagon with Jean Matsumoto at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, 2025. The moneyline has Johns priced at +260 while Matsumoto is coming in at -310.

Miles "Chapo" Johns walks into the cage holding a record of 15-3-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 66". Jean Matsumoto measures in at 5'6" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 16-1-0. The 25-year-old has a wingspan of 68". When talking about significant strikes, Miles Johns connects on 3.16 per min while Jean Matsumoto is landing 5.18 significant strikes per minute. Johns is connecting on 44% of the significant strikes he attempts and Matsumoto is landing 41%. Regarding defending in the cage, "Chapo" allows 2.65 significant strikes per min and Matsumoto allows 5.40. Johns also defends against 67% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Matsumoto prevents 45% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

Regarding takedowns, Miles Johns is not as effective of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.92 times per 3 rounds. Johns is finishing his takedown attempts on 20% of his attempts and thwarting 81% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Matsumoto is finishing his takedowns on 47% of his takedown tries and thwarting 57% of the attempts against him. Regarding submission attempts, Johns is the more experienced of the two fighters by trying 0.6 finishes per 15 min while Matsumoto goes for 0.3 finishes per 15 min.

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In his last fight, Miles Johns fought Felipe Lima and ended up losing the fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Lima landed 60 of 140 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Johns walked away from this fight having landed 35 of 143 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Lima landed 55 of 134, which gave him a percentage of 41%. He ended up landing 43 of 112 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Johns ended up landing 22% of his significant strikes by landing 31 of 137. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 21 of 122 pointed at the head. 94% of the significant strikes landed by Lima and 100% of them connected on by Johns were done at distance.

In the last fight for Jean Matsumoto, he faced off with Rob Font and wound up walking away in defeat by way of split decision in round 3. Font ended up connecting on 89% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Matsumoto landed 89% of his significant strikes at distance. Matsumoto connected on 42% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 77 of 181. He ended up landing 43 of 135 significant strikes to the head. Font ended up landing 95 of 171 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 82 of 157 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes thrown in that contest, Font was 113 of 191 and Matsumoto ended up landing 113 of 225 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Eryk Anders goes up against Christian Leroy Duncan. Anders has a career record of 17-8-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old will fight at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 75". Leroy Duncan measures 6'2" and steps on the scale at 185 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 11-2-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 79". Regarding grappling, Eryk Anders is able to score a takedown 1.71 times per 15 minutes while Christian Leroy Duncan is averaging a takedown 0.24 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Anders is connecting on 3.54 strikes/minute and is landing 48% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Christian Leroy Duncan, who lands 59% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 4.75 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Rafael Cerqueira is set to take on Julius Walker. Walker steps into the Octagon with a mark of 6-1-0. The 26-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Cerqueira stands in at 6'3" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this fight with a record of 11-2-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 76". In terms of grappling, Julius Walker is able to defend against 90% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is scoring a takedown on 11% of the times he tries. Cerqueira is finishing his takedown tries on 10% of the tries he takes and stops 10% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the category of striking, Walker takes 5.80 strikes/min while he is landing 5.73 strikes per minute. Cerqueira, on the other side, takes 14.43 strikes per minute and is dishing out 3.28 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Jean Matsumoto (-310)

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