Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan Pick, 05/10/2025 Predictions UFC 315 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 5/7/2025

Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan

UFC 315

Bell Centre in Montreal

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Navajo Stirling will take on Ivan Erslan at UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10, 2025. The opening odds have Stirling coming in at -298 while Erslan is coming in at +240.

Navajo Stirling looks to add a win to his career record of 6-0-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 79". Ivan Erslan Erslan comes in at 6'2" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 14-4-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old stretches 72". When talking about significant strikes, Navajo Stirling is connecting on 5.82 per min and Ivan Erslan is connecting on 2.60 significant strikes per minute. Stirling is landing 56% of the significant strikes he tries and Erslan is landing 56%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, Stirling allows 2.55 significant strikes per min while Erslan takes 3.00. Stirling also thwarts 58% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Erslan thwarts 62% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Navajo Stirling ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 315	Navajo Stirling	Ivan Erslan
Opening Odds	-298	+240
Record	6-0-0	14-4-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	11:11	15:00
Height	6'4"	6'2"
Weight	205 lbs	205 lbs
Reach	79"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	5.82	2.60
Striking Accuracy	56%	56%

Concerning takedowns, Navajo Stirling is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.70 times per 3 rounds. Stirling is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of his tries and is stuffing 72% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Erslan is finishing his takedowns on 50% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 75% of the attempts against him. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Stirling is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.4 subs per 15 min while Erslan attempts 0.8 subs per 3 rds.

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In his previous bout, Navajo Stirling fought Tuco Tokkos and wound up taking home the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Tokkos landed 34 of 93 total strikes that he let go. Stirling ended the night having landed 99 of 181 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Tokkos ended up landing 32 of 90, giving him a percentage of 35%. He ended up landing 18 of 70 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Stirling ended up landing 50% of his significant strikes by connecting on 78 of 155. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 33 of 94 pointed at the head. 87% of the significant strikes landed by Tokkos and 89% of them landed by Stirling were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Ivan Erslan, he battled Ion Cutelaba and was defeated by way of split decision in round 3. Cutelaba connected on 84% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Erslan landed 84% of his significant strikes at distance. Erslan ended up connecting on 56% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 39 of 69. He connected on 29 of 59 significant strikes to the head. Cutelaba ended up landing 45 of 120 significant strikes in that battle. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 24 of 93 directed at the head. In terms of the total strikes thrown in this fight, Cutelaba ended up landing 80 of 161 and Erslan connected on 63 of 101 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Marc-Andre Barriault faces off with Bruno Silva. Barriault walks into the Octagon holding a record of 16-9-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 74". Silva stands in at 6'0" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 23-12-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 74". Regarding grappling, Marc-Andre Barriault is able to score a takedown 0.21 times per 15 minutes while Bruno Silva gets a takedown 0.78 times per 3 rds. In the striking category, Barriault tags his opponents 5.98 strikes per minute and connecting on 47% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage you've got Bruno Silva, who lands 47% of the strikes he attempts and lands 3.85 per min.

Another bout to watch is when JeongYeong Lee is set to square up against Daniel Santos. Santos walks into the cage holding a mark of 12-2-0. The 30-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 67". Lee comes in at 5'10" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 11-2-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 73". Regarding takedowns, Daniel Santos is able to stop 73% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of the times he tries. Lee is taking his opponents down on 66% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 76% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Concerning striking, Santos is taking 5.12 strikes/minute and he is connecting on 4.26 per min. Lee, at the same time, absorbs 2.81 strikes per minute and is dealing 2.84 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Ivan Erslan (+240)

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Pick:	OVER 2.5 (-130)
Start:	May 10, 2025 @ 8:30 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Comp MLS Soccer Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Dallas/Salt Lake OVER 2.5 (-130) (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday May 10) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time) These sides are nothing to write home about offensive, but their defenses are bad enough where both sides should have plenty of opportunities, and these sides have a strong history for high scoring matches. These are two of the worst defensive sides in MLS and combine to allow more than three goals per match. Dallas is coming off a road loss to San Diego where they conceded five goals. They were held scoreless in that one, but they should put an emphasis on scoring here and home pitch should help in that regard, and Salt Lake have given up five goals in their last three on the road. There’s a great chance Dallas could get two or more here. Salt Lake have scored in three straight on the road, amassing five goals in those matches. So there’s a good chance they will get at least one, and multiples is not out of the question. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the posted number, and three of those matches have seen four or more goals scored. We think we could see a result where both sides had multiple goals, but we are confident both will combine for three or more, and this price is more than fair for Saturday’s clash. Read More Read Less

Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan Pick, 05/10/2025 Predictions UFC 315 Odds

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