Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/13/2025

Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro

UFC Vegas 106

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Tecia Pennington will battle Luana Pinheiro at UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17, 2025. The odds have Pennington at -455 while Pinheiro is at +350.

Tecia "Tiny Tornado" Pennington will be looking to add a victory to her career total of 14-7-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 115 lbs and stands 5'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 60". Luana Pinheiro measures 5'2" and is fighting at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her career total of 11-4-0. The 32-year-old extends her reach 62". Concerning significant strikes, Tecia Pennington is connecting on 4.82 per min and Luana Pinheiro is connecting on 3.42 significant strikes per min. Pennington is landing 47% of the significant strikes she tries while Pinheiro lands 40%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Tiny Tornado" allows 3.53 significant strikes per minute and Pinheiro takes 4.03. Pennington also defends 61% of the significant strikes her opponents throw her way and Pinheiro stops 61% of the strikes thrown her way.

ufc picks Tecia Pennington predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 106	Tecia Pennington	Luana Pinheiro
Opening Odds	-455	+350
Record	14-7-0	11-4-0
Average Fight Time	13:53	10:44
Height	5'1"	5'2"
Weight	115 lbs	115 lbs
Reach	60"	62"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.82	3.42
Striking Accuracy	47%	40%

Concerning takedowns, Tecia Pennington is the lesser skilled grappler as she is able to score a takedown 0.57 times per 15 minutes. Pennington is getting her opponent to the mat on 14% of her tries and is stuffing 63% of the takedowns her opponents try. Pinheiro is taking her opponents to the canvas on 33% of the takedowns she attempts and stuffing 69% of all takedowns attempted on her. When it comes to submission attempts, Pennington is not as skilled of a technician by trying 0.1 subs per 3 rounds while Pinheiro tries 0.7 subs per 15 minutes.

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In her previous bout, Tecia Pennington went up against Carla Esparza and ended up getting the victory in the fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Esparza landed 116 of 215 total strikes attempted in that fight. Pennington finished this fight landing 94 of 166 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Esparza landed 39 of 123, which means her percentage was 31%. She finished the fight landing 30 of 112 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Pennington ended up landing 53% of the significant strikes she threw by landing 80 of 150. Of those significant strikes, she was 28 of 92 pointed at the head. 84% of the significant strikes connected on by Esparza and 93% of them connected on by Pennington were done at distance.

In the last fight for Luana Pinheiro, she battled Gillian Robertson and took a loss on the night by unanimous decision in round 3. Robertson ended up landing 53% of her significant strikes at distance while Pinheiro landed 97% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance. Pinheiro ended up landing 40% of the significant strikes she attempted by connecting on 42 of 105. She ended up landing 23 of 84 significant strikes aimed at the head. Robertson ended up connecting on 52 of 108 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, she ended up connecting on 33 of 72 to the head. In regard to total strikes that she threw in that fight, Robertson landed 78 of 145 while Pinheiro ended up landing 63 of 128 total strikes.

Other fights to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Gilbert Burns meets Michael Morales. Burns has a record of 22-8-0. The 38-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Morales measures 6'0" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 17-0-0. The 25-year-old has a reach of 79". Concerning takedowns, Gilbert Burns takes his opponents to the mat 2.10 times per 3 rds and Michael Morales takes his opponents to the mat 1.16 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Burns lands 3.17 strikes/min and connects on 48% of his attempted strikes. On the other side we have Michael Morales, who tags his opponent on 48% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 5.42 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Paul Craig is set to square up in the Octagon with Rodolfo Bellato. Bellato walks into the cage with a record of 12-2-1. The 29-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Craig measures in at 6'3" and is weighing in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 17-9-1. The 37-year-old extends his reach 76". Concerning wrestling, Rodolfo Bellato is thwarting 85% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents down on 30% of his tries. Craig is finishing his takedowns on 20% of the attempts he tries and thwarts 37% of all takedown attempts. Concerning striking, Bellato absorbs 6.31 strikes per min while he is landing 6.28 strikes/min. Craig, notwithstanding, takes 3.03 strikes per min and lands 2.52 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tecia Pennington (-455)

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Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

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