Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds

Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen

UFC Rio

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Vitor Petrino will face off with Thomas Petersen at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opening odds have Petrino coming in at -310 while Petersen is at +260.

Vitor Petrino holds a career record of 12-2-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 265 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 77". Thomas "The Train" Petersen measures 6'1" and is fighting at 264 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career mark of 10-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 74". In terms of significant strikes, Vitor Petrino is landing 2.72 per min while Thomas Petersen is connecting on 3.74 significant strikes per minute. Petrino connects on 45% of the significant strikes he attempts and Petersen is landing 59%. When it comes to defending in the cage, Petrino allows 2.60 significant strikes per minute and "The Train" takes 2.94. Petrino also prevents 47% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Petersen deflects 57% of the shots thrown his way.

Regarding takedowns, Vitor Petrino is not as effective of a wrestler as he scores a takedown 3.25 times per 3 rds. Petrino is scoring a takedown on 58% of the times he tries and is stopping 71% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Petersen is finishing his takedown tries on 66% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 100% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Petrino is the more skilled technician by attempting 1.0 sub per 3 rds while Petersen looks to get 0.6 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Vitor Petrino squared up with Austen Lane and ended up getting the win by rear naked choke in round 1. Lane landed 3 of 4 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Petrino walked away from this fight having landed 17 of 22 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Lane landed 3 of 4, which means his percentage was 75%. He finished the fight landing 0 of 0 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Petrino ended up landing 50% of his significant strikes by connecting on 3 of 6. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 2 of 4 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Lane and 33% of them connected on by Petrino were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Thomas Petersen, he squared up with Don'Tale Mayes and ended up getting the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Mayes connected on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Petersen landed 3% of his significant strikes at distance. Petersen ended up connecting on 54% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 28 of 51. He ended up landing 28 of 51 significant strikes aimed at the head. Mayes ended up landing 3 of 11 significant strikes in that battle. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 1 of 8 to the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Mayes connected on 13 of 23 and Petersen was 105 of 166 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Lucas Rocha battles Stewart Nicoll. Rocha walks into the cage with a record of 17-2-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 64". Nicoll measures in at 5'5" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 8-1-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 65". Regarding grappling, Lucas Rocha scores a takedown 0.00 times per 3 rounds and Stewart Nicoll scores a takedown 5.66 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Rocha lands an average of 2.00 strikes per minute and lands 44% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Stewart Nicoll, who tags his opponent on 47% of the strikes he attempts and lands an average of 3.02 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Saimon Oliveira is set to enter the Octagon with Luan Lacerda. Lacerda comes into this fight with a mark of 12-3-0. The 32-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Oliveira measures in at 5'4" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 18-6-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 72". In terms of wrestling, Luan Lacerda is able to stop 75% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedown tries on 25% of the times he tries. Oliveira is taking his opponents to the mat on 25% of his tries and is able to stop 38% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the category of striking, Lacerda is absorbing 7.07 strikes/minute while he is dealing 4.52 strikes per min. Oliveira, in contrast, takes 4.13 strikes per min and deals 2.67 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Thomas Petersen (+260)

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