Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden Pick, 07/11/2026 Predictions UFC 329 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 7/6/2026

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden

UFC 329

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Alessandro Costa will enter the Octagon against Cody Durden at UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. The odds have Costa at -255 while Durden is coming in at +215.

Alessandro "Nono" Costa walks into the Octagon with a mark of 16-5-0. The 30-year-old weighs 125 lbs and stands in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 67". Cody "Custom Made" Durden measures 5'7" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career mark of 18-10-1. The 35-year-old stretches 67". With respect to significant strikes, Alessandro Costa connects on 3.86 per min and Cody Durden is landing 3.24 significant strikes per min. Costa connects on 46% of the significant strikes he tries and Durden lands 44%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "Nono" allows 3.70 significant strikes per minute and "Custom Made" allows 3.94. Costa also defends 56% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Durden prevents 50% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Alessandro Costa predictions best bet odds

UFC 329	Alessandro Costa	Cody Durden
Opening Odds	-255	+215
Record	16-5-0	18-10-1
Average Fight Time	9:45	10:06
Height	5'4"	5'7"
Weight	125 lbs	125 lbs
Reach	67"	67"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.86	3.24
Striking Accuracy	46%	44%

Concerning takedowns, Alessandro Costa is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.77 times per 15 minutes. Costa is taking his opponents to the canvas on 26% of the times he tries and thwarting 86% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Durden is taking his opponents down on 49% of the takedowns he tries and stuffing 56% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Costa is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.4 finishes per 3 rds while Durden tries 0.7 finishes per 15 min.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Alessandro Costa fought Matt Schnell and ended up winning this fight by a punch to the head in round 1. Schnell ended up landing 8 of 21 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Costa finished this fight landing 19 of 23 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Schnell landed 8 of 21, which gave him a rate of 38%. He finished the fight landing 5 of 17 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Costa ended up landing 82% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 19 of 23. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 16 of 18 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Schnell and 36% of them landed by Costa were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Cody Durden, he fought Jafel Filho and ended up getting the win by unanimous decision in round 3. Filho landed 69% of his significant strikes at distance and Durden ended up connecting on 70% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Durden ended up landing 47% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 34 of 72. He landed 21 of 54 significant strikes aimed at the head. Filho landed 23 of 63 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 10 of 44 to the head. Relating to total strikes attempted in that fight, Filho was 50 of 93 and Durden landed 91 of 136 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Tracy Cortez opposes Wang Cong. Cortez has a career record of 12-3-0. The 32-year-old will fight at 125 lbs. and measures 5' 5". The orthodox fighter reaches 65". Cong measures in at 5' 6" and tips the scales at 125 lbs.. The southpaw fighter has a career mark of 9-1-0. The 34-year-old extends her reach 66". In terms of takedowns, Tracy Cortez gets a takedown 2.15 times per 3 rds and Wang Cong is able to score a takedown 0.78 times per 3 rounds. Regarding striking, Cortez is landing 3.86 strikes per minute and landing 48% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Wang Cong, who connects on 56% of the strikes she has attempted and is connecting on 6.22 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Max Holloway is set to clash with Conor McGregor. McGregor will be looking to add a victory to his total of 22-6-0. The 37-year-old weighs 155 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 74". Holloway comes in at 5'11" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 27-9-0. The 34-year-old has an arm span of 69". Concerning grappling, Conor McGregor stops 66% of his opponents' takedown tries and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 55% of the times he tries. Holloway is taking his opponents to the mat on 53% of his attempts and is able to thwart 81% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, McGregor is taking 4.66 strikes per min while he dishes out 5.32 strikes/minute. Holloway, at the same time, is absorbing 4.61 strikes/minute and dishes out 6.91 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Alessandro Costa (-255)

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Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden Pick, 07/11/2026 Predictions UFC 329 Odds

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