Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo Pick, 06/20/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 119 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 6/19/2026

Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo

UFC Vegas 119

Meta Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 20, 2026

Allan Nascimento will take on Mitch Raposo at UFC Vegas 119 on Saturday, June 20, 2026. The moneyline has Nascimento coming in at -162 while Raposo is priced at +142.

Allan "Puro Osso" Nascimento steps into the Octagon with a record of 22-6-0. The 34-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures 5'8". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 69". Mitch Raposo comes in at 5'5" and weighs 125 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 10-3-0. The 27-year-old has an arm span of 64". When talking about significant strikes, Allan Nascimento is landing 3.06 per min while Mitch Raposo connects on 1.73 significant strikes per minute. Nascimento lands 55% of the significant strikes he throws and Raposo is landing 36%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "Puro Osso" allows 2.53 significant strikes per min while Raposo allows 2.65. Nascimento also curbs 52% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Raposo is able to defend against 61% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Mitch Raposo predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 119	Allan Nascimento	Mitch Raposo
Opening Odds	-162	+142
Record	22-6-0	10-3-0
Average Fight Time	11:55	13:18
Height	5'8"	5'5"
Weight	125 lbs	125 lbs
Reach	69"	64"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.06	1.73
Striking Accuracy	55%	36%

In terms of takedowns, Allan Nascimento is not as efficient of a wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 1.26 times per 15 minutes. Nascimento is getting his opponent to the mat on 23% of the times he tries and defending 37% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Raposo is finishing his takedowns on 37% of his takedown tries and thwarting 61% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Nascimento is the more skilled fighter by going for 1.1 subs per 15 min while Raposo tries 0.4 subs per 3 rounds.

Today’s Featured MMA Best Bet!

You can get this top rated play complimentary when you set up a free $60 account here at Doc’s Sports and use part of it towards his a one day MMA package. Join Now!

Get all of our Free UFC Picks

In his last bout, Allan Nascimento faced Cody Durden and wound up getting the win via an anaconda choke in round 2. Durden landed 57 of 128 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Nascimento ended the night having landed 52 of 115 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Durden ended up landing 57 of 128, which gave him a rate of 44%. He ended up landing 47 of 112 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Nascimento ended up landing 45% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 52 of 115. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 19 of 69 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Durden and 98% of them connected on by Nascimento were thrown at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Mitch Raposo, he faced off with Azat Maksum and wound up taking home the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Maksum ended up landing 89% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Raposo ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Raposo ended up connecting on 45% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 30 of 66. He connected on 20 of 50 significant strikes aimed at the head. Maksum connected on 19 of 88 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up landing 14 of 80 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes attempted in that fight, Maksum was 30 of 101 while Raposo was 53 of 92 total strikes.

Other fights to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Gaston Bolanos enters the Octagon with Michael Aswell Jr.. Bolanos has a career record of 8-5-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Aswell Jr. comes in at 5'8" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 11-4-0. The 25-year-old has an arm span of 69". Regarding grappling, Gaston Bolanos takes his opponents to the canvas 0.66 times per 3 rounds while Michael Aswell Jr. is able to score a takedown 0.32 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Bolanos lands 3.28 strikes per min and connecting on 49% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Michael Aswell Jr., who connects on 42% of the strikes he attempts and lands an average of 7.79 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Melissa Mullins is set to square up against Bia Mesquita. Mesquita holds a career record of 7-0-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 67". Mullins stands 5'7" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 7-2-0. The 34-year-old extends her reach 68". In terms of wrestling, Bia Mesquita prevents 15% of the takedowns her opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 75% of her tries. Mullins is taking her opponents to the mat on 42% of the tries she takes and is able to stop 85% of all takedown tries against her. In the category of striking, Mesquita absorbs 0.64 strikes/min while she is dealing 5.78 strikes per minute. Mullins, notwithstanding, is absorbing 4.39 strikes per min and dishes out 3.71 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Allan Nascimento (-162)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get all of Today's Free UFC Picks

Get all of Today's Expert UFC Picks

Start:	June 19, 2026 @ 10:10 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
Free $60 Account Sign Up

Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo Pick, 06/20/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 119 Odds

Most Recent UFC Picks