Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh

UFC Mexico

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Brandon Moreno will take on Lone'er Kavanagh at UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The opening odds have Moreno priced at -225 while Kavanagh is priced at +190.

Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno has a career mark of 23-9-2. The 32-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Lone'er Kavanagh stands in at 5' 6" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 9-1-0. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 67". In the category of significant strikes, Brandon Moreno lands 3.89 per min while Lone'er Kavanagh lands 4.29 significant strikes per min. Moreno is connecting on 44% of the significant strikes he tries and Kavanagh lands 49%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, "The Assassin Baby" allows 3.62 significant strikes per min while Kavanagh takes 3.69. Moreno also stops 60% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Kavanagh curbs 58% of them.

Regarding wrestling, Brandon Moreno is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.47 times per 15 min. Moreno is scoring a takedown on 44% of his attempts and is stopping 64% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Kavanagh is scoring a takedown on 50% of the takedowns he tries and stopping 88% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. When it comes to submission attempts, Moreno is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 0.4 submissions per 3 rds while Kavanagh attempts 0.6 submissions per 15 min.

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In his last bout, Brandon Moreno fought Tatsuro Taira and was on the losing end of this fight by a punch to the head in round 2. Taira landed 45 of 65 total strikes that he let go. Moreno ended the night having landed 9 of 17 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Taira landed 28 of 48, which gave him a rate of 58%. He ended up landing 23 of 42 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Moreno landed 52% of his significant strikes by landing 9 of 17. Of those significant strikes, he was 8 of 14 pointed at the head. 25% of the significant strikes landed by Taira and 77% of them landed by Moreno were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Lone'er Kavanagh, he fought Charles Johnson and was defeated by a punch to the head in round 2. Johnson ended up connecting on 84% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Kavanagh ended up landing 89% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Kavanagh landed 49% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 59 of 120. He landed 32 of 83 significant strikes aimed at the head. Johnson ended up landing 44 of 81 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 18 of 49 to the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Johnson was 52 of 89 and Kavanagh connected on 60 of 121 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to keep an eye on

One more match to look forward to is when Marlon Vera enters the Octagon against David Martinez. Vera steps into the cage with a record of 23-11-1. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands 5' 8". The switch fighter extends his reach 70". Martinez measures in at 5' 5" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 13-1-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 67". In terms of takedowns, Marlon Vera is able to score a takedown 0.49 times per 3 rds and David Martinez takes his opponents down 0.80 times per 3 rds. In terms of striking, Vera lands 4.25 strikes/minute and landing 48% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have David Martinez, who tags the opposition on 47% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 4.85 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when King Green is set to clash with Daniel Zellhuber. Zellhuber walks into the cage holding a mark of 15-3-0. The 26-year-old records a weight of 155 lbs and comes in at 6' 1". The switch fighter extends his reach 77". Green measures 5' 10" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 33-17-1 (1 NC). The 39-year-old stretches 71". Concerning grappling, Daniel Zellhuber defends against 94% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is taking his opponents to the mat on 25% of his tries. Green is taking his opponents to the mat on 40% of the attempts he tries and deflects 72% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Concerning striking, Zellhuber is taking 5.91 strikes per minute and he is connecting on 5.83 strikes/min. Green, on the other side, is taking 3.64 strikes/min and is connecting on 6.30 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Brandon Moreno (-225)

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