Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista Pick, 07/11/2026 Predictions UFC 329 Odds
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
UFC 329
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Cory Sandhagen will take on Mario Bautista at UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. The opener has Sandhagen priced at -140 while Bautista is at +120.
Cory Sandhagen walks into the Octagon holding a record of 18-6-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and measures 5'11". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 70". Mario Bautista comes in at 5'9" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 17-3-0. The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 69". With respect to significant strikes, Cory Sandhagen connects on 4.86 per minute and Mario Bautista is landing 5.30 significant strikes per min. Sandhagen lands 45% of the significant strikes he tries while Bautista is connecting on 48%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, Sandhagen absorbs 3.47 significant strikes per min while Bautista allows 3.98. Sandhagen also deflects 56% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Bautista is able to defend against 54% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC 329 | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -140 | +120 |
| Record | 18-6-0 | 17-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 14:43 | 10:06 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.86 | 5.30 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | 48% |
Regarding wrestling, Cory Sandhagen is the not as competent as a grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.15 times per 15 min. Sandhagen is scoring a takedown on 34% of the times he tries and is stuffing 56% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Bautista is finishing his takedowns on 38% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 55% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Sandhagen is the lesser skilled fighter by attempting 0.2 submissions per 15 min while Bautista attempts 0.8 submissions per 3 rounds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Cory Sandhagen squared up with Merab Dvalishvili and wound up walking away in defeat by unanimous decision in round 5. Dvalishvili landed 243 of 399 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Sandhagen ended the night having landed 149 of 257 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Dvalishvili ended up landing 114 of 265, which means his percentage was 43%. He finished the fight landing 86 of 231 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Sandhagen landed 43% of his significant strikes by sticking 80 of 184. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 46 of 143 aimed at the head. 69% of the significant strikes connected on by Dvalishvili and 100% of them landed by Sandhagen were thrown at a distance.
In the last bout for Mario Bautista, he fought Vinicius Oliveira and took home the victory via rear naked choke in round 2. Oliveira connected on 75% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Bautista landed 40% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Bautista ended up connecting on 55% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 15 of 27. He landed 10 of 20 significant strikes aimed at the head. Oliveira connected on 12 of 21 significant strikes in that contest. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up connecting on 3 of 10 to the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Oliveira was 18 of 27 and Bautista was 49 of 63 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights on the card to keep an eye on
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Brandon Royval battles Lone'er Kavanagh. Royval steps into the Octagon with a mark of 17-9-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The southpaw fighter stretches 68". Kavanagh measures 5'6" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 10-1-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 67". In terms of takedowns, Brandon Royval gets his opposition to the mat 0.65 times per 3 rounds while Lone'er Kavanagh takes his opponents to the canvas 1.12 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Royval is landing 5.54 strikes/min and connecting on 41% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Lone'er Kavanagh, who tags his opponent on 48% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 4.13 per min.
One more can't miss bout is when Terrance McKinney is set to enter the Octagon against King Green. Green walks into the cage with a record of 35-17-1 (1 NC). The 39-year-old records a weight of 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". McKinney measures 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 18-8-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 73". In the category of takedowns, King Green is able to deflect 72% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 43% of his attempts. McKinney is finishing his takedowns on 40% of his tries and deflects 72% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Green is absorbing 3.55 strikes per min and he connects on 6.46 per min. McKinney, in contrast, absorbs 3.45 strikes per min and dishes out 6.53 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cory Sandhagen (-140)
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