Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 2/27/2026

Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall

UFC Mexico

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Erik Silva will face off with Francis Marshall at UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The odds have Silva at +525 while Marshall is at -700.

Erik "The King" Silva steps into the cage holding a record of 9-3-0. The 38-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and measures in at 5' 9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Francis "Fire" Marshall comes in at 5' 9" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 8-3-0. The 26-year-old reaches 72". Concerning significant strikes, Erik Silva lands 2.07 per min while Francis Marshall lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute. Silva is landing 70% of the significant strikes he throws and Marshall is landing 33%. In terms of defending themselves, "The King" takes 1.57 significant strikes per min and "Fire" allows 4.10. Silva also stops 40% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Marshall curbs 54% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Erik Silva predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico	Erik Silva	Francis Marshall
Opening Odds	+525	-700
Record	9-3-0	8-3-0
Average Fight Time	5:19	11:50
Height	5' 9"	5' 9"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	71"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.07	3.46
Striking Accuracy	70%	33%

When it comes to grappling, Erik Silva is the more productive wrestler as he takes his opponents down 3.76 times per 15 minutes. Silva is taking his opponents to the canvas on 80% of his attempts and stuffing 62% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Marshall is getting his opponent to the mat on 44% of the takedowns he attempts and is stuffing 66% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding sub attempts, Silva is the more experienced submission fighter by trying 0.7 submissions per 3 rds while Marshall tries 0.4 submissions per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Erik Silva went up against Muhammad Naimov and ended up taking the loss via a leg injury to Silva in round 1. Naimov ended up landing 3 of 4 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Silva walked away from this fight having landed 0 of 1 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Naimov landed 1 of 2, which gave him a percentage of 50%. He finished the fight landing 1 of 2 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Silva ended up landing 0% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 0 of 1. Of those significant strikes, he was 0 of 0 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Naimov and 33% of them connected on by Silva were done at distance.

In the last bout for Francis Marshall, he faced off with Mairon Santos and was on the losing end of this fight by split decision in round 3. Santos ended up connecting on 98% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Marshall landed 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Marshall connected on 27% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 39 of 143. He connected on 32 of 136 significant strikes to the head. Santos ended up landing 58 of 129 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up landing 29 of 80 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Santos connected on 78 of 154 and Marshall ended up landing 64 of 179 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Damian Pinas enters the Octagon against Wes Schultz. Pinas steps into the Octagon holding a record of 8-1-0. The 23-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands in at 6' 1". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 79". Schultz stands 6' 2" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 8-2-0. The 29-year-old has a reach of 77". Regarding grappling, Damian Pinas takes his opponents down 0.50 times per 3 rds and Wes Schultz takes his opponents to the mat 5.57 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Pinas is connecting on 9.62 strikes/min and is connecting on 50% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Wes Schultz, who tags the opposition on 46% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 5.39 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Macy Chiasson is set to fight Ailin Perez. Perez will be looking to add a win to her record of 12-2-0. The 31-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and comes in at 5' 5". The switch fighter extends her reach 66". Chiasson stands in at 5' 11" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 11-5-0. The 34-year-old stretches 72". In terms of wrestling, Ailin Perez is thwarting 66% of the takedowns her opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 46% of the times she tries. Chiasson is finishing her takedown tries on 37% of her tries and is able to stop 72% of all takedown tries against her. With reference to striking, Perez takes 1.79 strikes/min while she is landing 3.10 per min. Chiasson, moreover, is absorbing 2.86 strikes per minute and is dishing out 3.50 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Francis Marshall (-700)

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Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

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