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Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan Pick, 06/06/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 118 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 6/4/2026

Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan

UFC Vegas 118

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Fares Ziam will face off against Tom Nolan at UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. The moneyline has Ziam at -300 while Nolan is priced at +250.

Fares "The Smile Killer" Ziam looks to add a victory to his total of 18-4-0. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and stands 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 75". Tom "Big Train" Nolan stands 6'3" and weighs 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career record of 10-1-0. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 73". With respect to significant strikes, Fares Ziam connects on 2.87 per minute while Tom Nolan is landing 5.87 significant strikes per minute. Ziam is connecting on 52% of the significant strikes he attempts while Nolan lands 45%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "The Smile Killer" takes 1.53 significant strikes per minute and "Big Train" absorbs 4.73. Ziam also thwarts 65% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Nolan is able to stop 48% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Fares Ziam predictions best bet odds

 

UFC Vegas 118 Fares Ziam Tom Nolan
Opening Odds -300 +250
Record 18-4-0 10-1-0
Average Fight Time 13:01 6:44
Height 6'1" 6'3"
Weight 155 lbs 155 lbs
Reach 75" 73"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.87 5.87
Striking Accuracy 52% 45%

Regarding grappling, Fares Ziam is the more effective grappler as he is averaging a takedown 1.73 times per 3 rds. Ziam is scoring a takedown on 40% of the times he tries and is stuffing 71% of the takedowns his opponents try. Nolan is taking his opponents to the canvas on 22% of his takedown tries and stopping 71% of the tries against him. In terms of going for the sub, Ziam is less likely to go for the finish by trying 0.5 subs per 3 rounds while Nolan tries 1.9 subs per 3 rounds.


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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Fares Ziam went up against Nazim Sadykhov and wound up taking home the win by a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Sadykhov ended up landing 7 of 21 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Ziam ended the night having landed 76 of 96 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Sadykhov landed 4 of 16, giving him a percentage of 25%. He finished the fight landing 1 of 11 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Ziam landed 63% of his significant strikes by connecting on 31 of 49. Of those significant strikes, he was 21 of 36 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Sadykhov and 58% of them connected on by Ziam were thrown at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Tom Nolan, he squared up with Charlie Campbell and ended up getting the victory via rear naked choke in round 1. Campbell connected on 93% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Nolan ended up landing 88% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Nolan connected on 42% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 26 of 61. He connected on 13 of 35 significant strikes to the head. Campbell landed 15 of 42 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, he landed 7 of 30 to the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go, Campbell connected on 15 of 42 while Nolan ended up landing 33 of 69 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Bryce Mitchell enters the Octagon against Santiago Luna. Mitchell walks into the cage with a record of 18-4-0. The 31-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 70". Luna stands 5'9" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 8-0-0. The 21-year-old has an arm span of 74". When it comes to grappling, Bryce Mitchell gets a takedown 3.24 times per 15 min while Santiago Luna scores a takedown 4.21 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Mitchell is landing 2.27 strikes/min and connects on 59% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Santiago Luna, who tags his opponent on 54% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 8.20 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Junior Tafa is set to fight Iwo Baraniewski. Baraniewski looks to add a victory to his total of 8-0-0. The 27-year-old weighs in at 205 lbs and measures 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 73". Tafa measures in at 6'3" and will fight at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 7-5-0. The 29-year-old stretches 75". Regarding wrestling, Iwo Baraniewski is able to defend against 85% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 15% of the times he tries. Tafa is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of his tries and is able to deflect 72% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Baraniewski is absorbing 14.01 strikes/minute and he dishes out 15.77 per minute. Tafa, moreover, absorbs 2.66 strikes per min and is dishing out 3.62 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Fares Ziam (-300)

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