Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr. Pick, 06/20/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 119 Odds

by Tony Sink - 6/19/2026

Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr.

UFC Vegas 119

Meta Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 20, 2026

Gaston Bolanos will take on Michael Aswell Jr. at UFC Vegas 119 on Saturday, June 20, 2026. The opening moneyline has Bolanos priced at +330 while Jr. is at -400.

Gaston "The Dreamkiller" Bolanos has a career record of 8-5-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Michael "The Texas Kid" Aswell Jr. comes in at 5'8" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 11-4-0. The 25-year-old has an arm span of 69". In terms of significant strikes, Gaston Bolanos is connecting on 3.28 per min and Michael Aswell Jr. lands 7.79 significant strikes per minute. Bolanos lands 49% of the significant strikes he tries while Aswell Jr. connects on 42%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "The Dreamkiller" absorbs 2.40 significant strikes per min while "The Texas Kid" takes 7.43. Bolanos also defends 50% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Aswell Jr. is able to thwart 51% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Gaston Bolanos ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 119	Gaston Bolanos	Michael Aswell Jr.
Opening Odds	+330	-400
Record	8-5-0	11-4-0
Average Fight Time	11:21	11:41
Height	5'7"	5'8"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	69"	69"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.28	7.79
Striking Accuracy	49%	42%

In the grappling category, Gaston Bolanos is the more efficient wrestler as he scores a takedown 0.66 times per 15 minutes. Bolanos is scoring a takedown on 85% of his attempts and is defending 42% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Aswell Jr. is finishing his takedown tries on 85% of his takedown attempts and is defending 57% of the attempts against him. When it comes to sub attempts, Bolanos is the more able fighter by going for 0.7 submissions per 3 rds while Aswell Jr. tries 0.3 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his previous bout, Gaston Bolanos faced Quang Le and ended up walking away in defeat by rear naked choke in round 2. Le landed 33 of 38 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Bolanos walked away from this fight having landed 8 of 23 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Le landed 10 of 14, which gave him a percentage of 71%. He landed 9 of 13 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Bolanos ended up landing 25% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 5 of 20. Of those significant strikes, he landed 1 of 11 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Le and 100% of them connected on by Bolanos were done at a distance.

In the last bout for Michael Aswell Jr., he fought Luke Riley and wound up losing the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Riley landed 90% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Jr. connected on 95% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Jr. connected on 33% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 61 of 180. He connected on 48 of 158 significant strikes aimed at the head. Riley ended up connecting on 100 of 177 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 65 of 134 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes thrown in that contest, Riley connected on 113 of 192 and Jr. landed 107 of 233 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

One more match to look forward to is when Bia Mesquita squares up against Melissa Mullins. Mesquita holds a career record of 7-0-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 67". Mullins stands 5'7" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 7-2-0. The 34-year-old extends her reach 68". In the grappling category, Bia Mesquita takes her opponents to the mat 4.81 times per 15 min while Melissa Mullins is able to score a takedown 2.03 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Mesquita tags his opponents 5.78 strikes/minute and landing 60% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Melissa Mullins, who is landing 50% of the strikes she attempts and connects for an average of 3.71 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Luana Santos is set to face off against Karol Rosa. Rosa comes into this fight holding a mark of 19-7-0. The 31-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter reaches 67". Santos measures in at 5'6" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 10-2-0. The 26-year-old reaches 67". When it comes to takedowns, Karol Rosa defends against 70% of the takedowns her opponents try and is getting her opponent to the mat on 48% of her tries. Santos is taking her opponents to the mat on 47% of her tries and is able to defend against 85% of all takedown tries against her. Concerning striking, Rosa is absorbing 4.59 strikes/minute while she is dealing 5.88 per min. Santos, moreover, is taking 2.93 strikes per minute and is dealing 2.99 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Michael Aswell Jr. (-400)

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Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr. Pick, 06/20/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 119 Odds

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