Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic Pick, 02/21/2026 Predictions UFC Houston Odds

Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic

UFC Houston

Toyota Center in Houston, TX

Saturday, February 21, 2026

Geoff Neal will face off with Uros Medic at UFC Houston on Saturday, February 21, 2026. The opening line has Neal at -225 while Medic is priced at +190.

Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal steps into the cage holding a record of 16-7-0. The 35-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 75". Uros "The Doctor" Medic comes in at 6'1" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 12-3-0. The 32-year-old has a wingspan of 71". Concerning significant strikes, Geoff Neal is landing 5.05 per min and Uros Medic connects on 5.53 significant strikes per minute. Neal connects on 51% of the significant strikes he throws and Medic lands 60%. Regarding defense, "Handz of Steel" takes 5.48 significant strikes per minute while "The Doctor" absorbs 3.46. Neal also curbs 57% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Medic is able to curb 56% of the shots thrown his way.

Regarding takedowns, Geoff Neal is the better wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.54 times per 3 rds. Neal is getting his opponent to the mat on 45% of the times he tries and stopping 87% of the takedowns his opponents try. Medic is scoring a takedown on 50% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 55% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of subbing opponents, Neal is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.1 finishes per 15 min while Medic looks to get 0.6 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his previous fight, Geoff Neal went up against Carlos Prates and walked away with a loss by a spinning back elbow to the head in round 1. Prates landed 32 of 60 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Neal walked away from this fight having landed 26 of 50 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Prates ended up landing 32 of 60, which gave him a rate of 53%. He finished the fight landing 17 of 45 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Neal ended up landing 51% of his significant strikes by connecting on 25 of 49. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 16 of 38 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Prates and 92% of them connected on by Neal were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Uros Medic, he battled Muslim Salikhov and wound up taking home the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Salikhov ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Medic ended up connecting on 62% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Medic ended up landing 61% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 8 of 13. He ended up landing 5 of 9 significant strikes directed at the head. Salikhov landed 2 of 5 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 0 of 1 directed at the head. In terms of the total strikes thrown in this fight, Salikhov ended up landing 2 of 5 and Medic connected on 9 of 14 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Dan Ige meets Melquizael Costa. Ige holds a mark of 19-10-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Costa stands 5'10" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career record of 25-7-0. The 29-year-old has a reach of 71". Regarding grappling, Dan Ige is averaging a takedown 0.89 times per 3 rounds while Melquizael Costa gets a takedown 1.93 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Ige tags his opponents 3.64 strikes per minute and landing 45% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side we have Melquizael Costa, who is connecting on 49% of his attempted strikes and is connecting on 4.42 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Ante Delija is set to square up in the Octagon with Serghei Spivac. Spivac walks into the cage holding a mark of 17-6-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 260 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Delija measures in at 6'3" and is fighting at 239 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 26-7-0. The 35-year-old has a wingspan of 78". When it comes to takedowns, Serghei Spivac thwarts 63% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents to the mat on 62% of his attempts. Delija is taking his opponents down on 15% of his attempts and is able to stop 15% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With reference to striking, Spivac is taking 4.25 strikes/minute and he dishes out 3.45 strikes per min. Delija, moreover, takes 2.65 strikes per min and dishes out 4.81 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Uros Medic (+190)

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