Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen Pick, 04/04/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 115 Odds

Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen

UFC Vegas 115

Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, April 4, 2026

Guilherme Pat will face off with Thomas Petersen at UFC Vegas 115 on Saturday, April 4, 2026. The moneyline has Pat at -105 while Petersen is coming in at -115.

Guilherme "Kong" Pat steps into the cage with a mark of 6-0-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 265 lbs and stands 6'6". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 81". Thomas "The Train" Petersen stands in at 6'1" and records a weight of 250 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 10-4-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 74". Regarding significant strikes, Guilherme Pat is landing 4.27 per minute while Thomas Petersen is landing 3.38 significant strikes per min. Pat is landing 64% of the significant strikes he tries while Petersen is connecting on 58%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Kong" takes 2.20 significant strikes per min while "The Train" absorbs 2.95. Pat also thwarts 61% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Petersen prevents 55% of the shots thrown his way.

Regarding wrestling, Guilherme Pat is not as efficient of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.8 times per 3 rds. Pat is finishing his takedown attempts on 17% of his tries and thwarting 67% of all takedowns attempted on him. Petersen is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 87% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Pat is less likely to go for the finish by trying 0.3 finishes per 3 rounds while Petersen goes for 0.5 finishes per 3 rds.

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In his last fight, Guilherme Pat fought Allen Frye Jr. and took home the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Jr. landed 73 of 132 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Pat ended the night having landed 76 of 114 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Jr. landed 33 of 86, which means his percentage was 38%. He landed 17 of 65 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Pat ended up landing 64% of his significant strikes by sticking 64 of 100. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 53 of 88 aimed at the head. 57% of the significant strikes landed by Jr. and 84% of them landed by Pat were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Thomas Petersen, he fought Vitor Petrino and wound up losing the fight by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Petrino landed 41% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Petersen ended up landing 81% of his significant strikes at distance. Petersen connected on 45% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 16 of 35. He connected on 7 of 25 significant strikes aimed at the head. Petrino ended up connecting on 31 of 54 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 25 of 46 directed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Petrino ended up connecting on 33 of 61 and Petersen ended up connecting on 41 of 62 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Alessandro Costa encounters Stewart Nicoll. Costa steps into the cage holding a record of 14-5-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and measures 5'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 67". Nicoll stands 5'5" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 8-2-0. The 29-year-old stretches 65". When it comes to grappling, Alessandro Costa takes his opponents to the mat 0.46 times per 3 rds while Stewart Nicoll takes his opponents down 2.55 times per 3 rds. Regarding striking, Costa lands an average of 3.64 strikes/min and connects on 44% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Stewart Nicoll, who is connecting on 34% of the strikes that he throws and is connecting on 3.00 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Darrius Flowers is set to face off with Lando Vannata. Vannata will be looking to add a victory to his total of 12-7-2. The 34-year-old records a weight of 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Flowers measures 5'9" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 12-8-1. The 31-year-old has a reach of 71". Concerning grappling, Lando Vannata is able to defend against 69% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 37% of the times he tries. Flowers is finishing his takedown tries on 28% of his attempts and prevents 63% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, Vannata takes 4.76 strikes per min while he deals 4.52 strikes per min. Flowers, in contrast, is absorbing 5.49 strikes/minute and is connecting on 3.07 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Guilherme Pat (-105)

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