Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Pick, 06/14/2026 Predictions UFC Freedom 250 Odds

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje

UFC Freedom 250

South Lawn of the White House

Sunday, June 14, 2026

Ilia Topuria will battle Justin Gaethje at UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14, 2026. The moneyline has Topuria coming in at -600 while Gaethje is coming in at +450.

Ilia "El Matador" Topuria steps into the cage holding a record of 17-0-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje comes in at 5'11" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 27-5-0. The 37-year-old extends his reach 70". Regarding significant strikes, Ilia Topuria is landing 4.81 per min and Justin Gaethje is connecting on 6.48 significant strikes per min. Topuria is connecting on 48% of the significant strikes he attempts and Gaethje is connecting on 58%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "El Matador" absorbs 3.83 significant strikes per minute and "The Highlight" absorbs 7.05. Topuria also defends against 64% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Gaethje thwarts 51% of the shots thrown his way.

When it comes to wrestling, Ilia Topuria is the more efficient grappler as he scores a takedown 1.96 times per 3 rds. Topuria is getting his opponent to the mat on 61% of the times he tries and thwarting 93% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Gaethje is finishing his takedowns on 40% of his takedown attempts and defending 74% of the tries against him. When it comes to subbing opponents, Topuria is the more capable fighter by attempting 1.1 submissions per 15 minutes while Gaethje attempts 0.7 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Ilia Topuria faced Charles Oliveira and ended up winning this fight by a punch to the head in round 1. Oliveira ended up landing 10 of 18 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Topuria walked away from this fight having landed 24 of 32 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Oliveira landed 9 of 16, giving him a percentage of 56%. He landed 3 of 8 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Topuria landed 72% of his significant strikes by sticking 21 of 29. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 17 of 23 aimed at the head. 88% of the significant strikes landed by Oliveira and 85% of them landed by Topuria were done at distance.

In the last bout for Justin Gaethje, he battled Paddy Pimblett and ended up getting the victory in the fight by unanimous decision in round 5. Pimblett ended up connecting on 89% of his significant strikes at distance while Gaethje landed 70% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Gaethje ended up landing 56% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 144 of 254. He ended up landing 120 of 222 significant strikes aimed at the head. Pimblett connected on 156 of 311 significant strikes in that battle. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 83 of 221 to the head. Regarding total strikes attempted in that contest, Pimblett landed 170 of 326 and Gaethje was 200 of 313 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Alex Pereira encounters Ciryl Gane. Pereira holds a mark of 13-3-0. The 38-year-old records a weight of 205 lbs and measures in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 79". Gane measures 6'4" and is fighting at 247 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 13-2-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 81". Regarding grappling, Alex Pereira is able to score a takedown 0.11 times per 15 minutes while Ciryl Gane gets a takedown 0.68 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Pereira tags his opponents 5.16 strikes/min and connecting on 62% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Ciryl Gane, who tags his opponent on 61% of the strikes he attempts and lands 5.29 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Aiemann Zahabi is set to square up with Sean O'Malley. O'Malley has a career record of 19-3-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'11". The switch fighter stretches 72". Zahabi stands 5'8" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 14-2-0. The 38-year-old has a reach of 68". When it comes to takedowns, Sean O'Malley prevents 60% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is finishing his takedown tries on 42% of the times he tries. Zahabi is taking his opponents down on 14% of the attempts he tries and is able to deflect 83% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, O'Malley is absorbing 3.40 strikes per min and he deals 6.05 strikes per min. Zahabi, at the same time, takes 4.08 strikes per minute and is landing 4.54 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Ilia Topuria (-600)

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