John Castaneda vs Alateng Heili Pick, 09/26/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 121 Odds
John Castaneda vs Alateng Heili
UFC Vegas 121
Meta Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, September 26, 2026
John Castaneda will enter the Octagon with Alateng Heili at UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The opening odds have Castaneda coming in at -330 while Heili is coming in at +269.
John "Sexi Mexi" Castaneda looks to add a win to his total of 21-8-1. The 34-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'6". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 71". Alateng "The Mongolian Knight" Heili stands in at 5'5" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 17-10-2. The 34-year-old has a wingspan of 66". With respect to significant strikes, John Castaneda is connecting on 4.95 per minute and Alateng Heili is landing 2.82 significant strikes per minute. Castaneda is landing 51% of the significant strikes he throws and Heili is landing 32%. In terms of defending themselves, "Sexi Mexi" takes 5.07 significant strikes per min while "The Mongolian Knight" absorbs 5.12. Castaneda also stops 54% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Heili prevents 57% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Vegas 121 | John Castaneda | Alateng Heili |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -330 | +269 |
| Record | 21-8-1 | 17-10-2 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:05 | 13:25 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'5" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 66" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.95 | 2.82 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 32% |
Regarding grappling, John Castaneda is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents down 1.49 times per 15 minutes. Castaneda is getting his opponent to the mat on 37% of his tries and is stopping 75% of all takedowns attempted on him. Heili is finishing his takedowns on 43% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 75% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding subbing the opposition, Castaneda is the lesser skilled fighter by attempting 0.1 finishes per 15 minutes while Heili tries 0.8 finishes per 3 rounds.
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The last time he fought, John Castaneda went up against Mark Vologdin and ended up in a draw by majority decision in round 3. Vologdin landed 96 of 222 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Castaneda walked away from this fight having landed 160 of 279 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Vologdin ended up landing 91 of 217, which gave him a rate of 41%. He ended up landing 53 of 165 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Castaneda ended up landing 53% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 135 of 253. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 79 of 181 to the head. 92% of the significant strikes landed by Vologdin and 91% of them connected on by Castaneda were tallied at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Alateng Heili, he squared up with Da'Mon Blackshear and walked away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Blackshear connected on 98% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Heili ended up connecting on 98% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Heili ended up connecting on 32% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 61 of 190. He ended up connecting on 34 of 148 significant strikes to the head. Blackshear connected on 125 of 273 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 75 of 200 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go, Blackshear landed 127 of 275 while Heili ended up connecting on 61 of 191 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Mickey Gall squares up with Sedriques Dumas. Gall walks into the cage with a record of 7-7-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and measures 6'2". The switch fighter has a reach of 74". Dumas comes in at 6'2" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 10-5-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old has a reach of 79". In the grappling category, Mickey Gall takes his opponents to the mat 1.15 times per 3 rds and Sedriques Dumas scores a takedown 1.30 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Gall is connecting on 3.50 strikes per min and connecting on 49% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Sedriques Dumas, who lands 44% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 1.97 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Ailin Perez is set to encounter Norma Dumont. Dumont looks to add a victory to her career record of 13-3-0. The 35-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and stands 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 67". Perez measures in at 5'5" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to her career total of 13-2-0. The 31-year-old extends her reach 66". When it comes to takedowns, Norma Dumont thwarts 71% of the takedowns her opponents try and is scoring a takedown on 54% of the times she tries. Perez is taking her opponents to the mat on 49% of her tries and is able to defend against 72% of the takedowns her opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Dumont is absorbing 2.33 strikes/min and she lands 3.85 per min. Perez, on the contrary, is taking 1.58 strikes/min and deals 2.88 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take John Castaneda (-330)
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