Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay Pick, 01/31/2026 Predictions UFC 325 Odds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay
UFC 325
Qudos Bank Arena in South Wales, Australia
Saturday, January 31, 2026
Keiichiro Nakamura will enter the Octagon against Sebastian Szalay at UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, 2026. The opening line has Nakamura coming in at +120 while Szalay is at -140.
Keiichiro Nakamura will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 7-1-0. The 27-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter reaches 70". Sebastian "Seb" Szalay measures 5'6" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 10-1-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 66". When talking about significant strikes, Keiichiro Nakamura is connecting on 5.22 per minute and Sebastian Szalay is landing 4.25 significant strikes per min. Nakamura lands 43% of the significant strikes he attempts while Szalay connects on 44%. Concerning the fighter's defense, Nakamura absorbs 3.39 significant strikes per min while "Seb" absorbs 1.27. Nakamura also prevents 66% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Szalay prevents 71% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC 325 | Keiichiro Nakamura | Sebastian Szalay |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +120 | -140 |
| Record | 7-1-0 | 10-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:12 | 7:54 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'6" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 66" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.22 | 4.25 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 44% |
When it comes to wrestling, Keiichiro Nakamura is the lesser skilled grappler as he is averaging a takedown 0.20 times per 15 minutes. Nakamura is taking his opponents to the canvas on 15% of his attempts and is stuffing 83% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Szalay is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of his takedown tries and is stopping 84% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding submissions, Nakamura is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes while Szalay looks to get 0.7 submissions per 3 rounds.
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In his last fight, Keiichiro Nakamura fought Kaiwen and wound up getting the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Kaiwen landed 57 of 167 total strikes attempted in that fight. Nakamura walked away from this fight having landed 93 of 226 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Kaiwen ended up landing 48 of 155, giving him a percentage of 30%. He ended up landing 40 of 136 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Nakamura landed 40% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 88 of 215. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 62 of 169 aimed at the head. 91% of the significant strikes landed by Kaiwen and 93% of them landed by Nakamura were thrown at distance.
In the last bout for Sebastian Szalay, he went up against ChangMin Yoon and ended up getting the win by a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Yoon ended up connecting on 100% of his significant strikes at distance and Szalay ended up connecting on 40% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Szalay landed 66% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 10 of 15. He landed 10 of 15 significant strikes directed at the head. Yoon ended up connecting on 3 of 4 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 2 of 3 directed at the head. In terms of total strikes attempted in that contest, Yoon was 3 of 4 and Szalay ended up connecting on 17 of 22 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to keep an eye on
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Rangbo Sulang takes on Lawrence Lui. Sulang walks into the Octagon with a mark of 10-3-0. The 20-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 66". Lui measures in at 5'7" and will fight at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 7-1-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 72". In terms of takedowns, Rangbo Sulang scores a takedown 0.90 times per 15 min and Lawrence Lui takes his opponents to the mat 0.40 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Sulang connects for an average of 4.15 strikes/min and connecting on 51% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Lawrence Lui, who tags the opposition on 43% of the strikes he has tried and lands 3.90 per minute.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Diego Lopes is set to face off with Alexander Volkanovski. Volkanovski steps into the cage holding a mark of 27-4-0. The 37-year-old weighs 145 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 71". Lopes stands 5'11" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 27-7-0. The 31-year-old stretches 72". In terms of grappling, Alexander Volkanovski prevents 70% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedown tries on 34% of his tries. Lopes is taking his opponents down on 55% of his tries and is able to thwart 67% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Volkanovski absorbs 3.36 strikes/minute while he lands 6.18 per min. Lopes, moreover, is absorbing 4.72 strikes per minute and deals 4.10 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Sebastian Szalay (-140)
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