Kelvin Gastelum vs Vicente Luque Pick, 04/11/2026 Predictions UFC 327 Odds
Kelvin Gastelum vs Vicente Luque
UFC 327
Kaseya Center in Miami
Saturday, April 11, 2026
Kelvin Gastelum will battle Vicente Luque at UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, 2026. The opener has Gastelum priced at -260 while Luque is coming in at +220.
Kelvin Gastelum will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 21-10-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 71". Vicente "The Silent Assassin" Luque measures in at 5'11" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 23-12-1. The 34-year-old reaches 75". In terms of significant strikes, Kelvin Gastelum connects on 3.67 per min while Vicente Luque is connecting on 4.83 significant strikes per minute. Gastelum lands 42% of the significant strikes he tries while Luque lands 51%. Concerning the fighter's defense, Gastelum takes 3.53 significant strikes per minute while "The Silent Assassin" allows 5.30. Gastelum also stops 57% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Luque is able to thwart 51% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC 327 | Kelvin Gastelum | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -260 | +220 |
| Record | 21-10-0 (1 NC) | 23-12-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:43 | 9:41 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight | 185 lbs | 185 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 75" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.67 | 4.83 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 51% |
In terms of wrestling, Kelvin Gastelum is the more productive wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 1.01 times per 15 minutes. Gastelum is taking his opponents to the canvas on 34% of the times he tries and stopping 60% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Luque is finishing his takedowns on 48% of his takedown tries and stuffing 60% of the attempts against him. In terms of submissions, Gastelum is not as skilled of a technician by going for 0.1 finishes per 15 minutes while Luque goes for 0.7 finishes per 15 minutes.
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In his previous bout, Kelvin Gastelum squared up with Dustin Stoltzfus and wound up taking home the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Stoltzfus landed 69 of 151 total strikes attempted in that contest. Gastelum ended the night having landed 58 of 118 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Stoltzfus landed 64 of 146, which gave him a percentage of 43%. He ended up landing 25 of 93 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Gastelum ended up landing 48% of his significant strikes by sticking 57 of 117. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 30 of 81 aimed at the head. 85% of the significant strikes landed by Stoltzfus and 98% of them landed by Gastelum were done at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Vicente Luque, he fought Joel Alvarez and wound up taking the loss via unanimous decision in round 3. Alvarez landed 61% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Luque connected on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Luque ended up landing 30% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 30 of 99. He connected on 16 of 74 significant strikes aimed at the head. Alvarez ended up connecting on 89 of 148 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 74 of 130 to the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that fight, Alvarez ended up connecting on 197 of 288 while Luque was 31 of 101 of all the strikes he threw.
Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Charles Radtke enters the Octagon with Francisco Prado. Radtke has a mark of 11-5-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Prado measures in at 5'10" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 12-4-0. The 23-year-old reaches 69". Regarding grappling, Charles Radtke gets a takedown 1.32 times per 15 minutes while Francisco Prado takes his opponents to the mat 0.94 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Radtke lands 2.80 strikes per min and connects on 54% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Francisco Prado, who lands 43% of the strikes he has tried and is landing 4.09 per min.
Another bout to watch is when Loopy Godinez is set to face off with Tatiana Suarez. Suarez holds a career record of 12-1-0. The 35-year-old weighs 115 lbs and comes in at 5'5". The southpaw fighter stretches 66". Godinez stands in at 5'2" and weighs 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to her career record of 14-5-0. The 32-year-old stretches 61". Concerning grappling, Tatiana Suarez is preventing 80% of the takedowns her opponents try and is getting her opponent to the mat on 43% of her tries. Godinez is taking her opponents to the mat on 41% of her tries and is able to deflect 81% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Suarez takes 1.58 strikes/min and she is dealing 2.95 strikes per minute. Godinez, on the other side, takes 4.03 strikes per min and is connecting on 4.51 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Vicente Luque (+220)
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