Luan Lacerda vs Hecher Sosa Pick, 03/14/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 114 Odds
Luan Lacerda vs Hecher Sosa
UFC Vegas 114
Meta APEX in Las Vegas
Saturday, March 14, 2026
Luan Lacerda will take on Hecher Sosa at UFC Vegas 114 on Saturday, March 14, 2026. The moneyline has Lacerda priced at +205 while Sosa is coming in at -240.
Luan Lacerda steps into the Octagon with a record of 13-3-0. The 33-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Hecher "Guanche Warrior" Sosa measures 5'9" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 14-1-0. The 30-year-old has an arm span of 70". Regarding significant strikes, Luan Lacerda lands 4.02 per min while Hecher Sosa lands 2.13 significant strikes per min. Lacerda is connecting on 46% of the significant strikes he tries while Sosa connects on 50%. When it comes to defending in the cage, Lacerda takes 5.79 significant strikes per min and "Guanche Warrior" absorbs 0.87. Lacerda also stops 46% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Sosa is able to defend against 55% of the strikes thrown his way.
| UFC Vegas 114 | Luan Lacerda | Hecher Sosa |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +205 | -240 |
| Record | 13-3-0 | 14-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:56 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 70" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.02 | 2.13 |
| Striking Accuracy | 46% | 50% |
When it comes to grappling, Luan Lacerda is not as effective of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 2.29 times per 3 rds. Lacerda is finishing his takedown attempts on 41% of his attempts and defending 66% of the takedowns his opponents try. Sosa is taking his opponents down on 36% of the takedowns he attempts and is stopping 85% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of subbing the opposition, Lacerda is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.9 subs per 15 minutes while Sosa attempts 2.0 subs per 3 rounds.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Luan Lacerda squared up with Saimon Oliveira and wound up getting the victory by an armbar from bottom guard in round 2. Oliveira ended up landing 33 of 52 total strikes attempted in that contest. Lacerda walked away from this fight having landed 60 of 85 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Oliveira ended up landing 21 of 34, which gave him a rate of 61%. He finished the fight landing 14 of 21 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Lacerda ended up landing 61% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 24 of 39. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 13 of 26 aimed at the head. 38% of the significant strikes connected on by Oliveira and 25% of them connected on by Lacerda were done at distance.
In the last bout for Hecher Sosa, he squared up with Macksom Lee and wound up taking home the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Lee ended up connecting on 92% of his significant strikes at distance while Sosa connected on 59% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Sosa ended up landing 50% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 32 of 64. He ended up landing 24 of 52 significant strikes to the head. Lee connected on 13 of 29 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 5 of 14 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Lee ended up landing 13 of 29 and Sosa ended up landing 124 of 177 of all the strikes he threw.
Other bouts on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Amanda Lemos goes up against Gillian Robertson. Lemos holds a mark of 15-5-1. The 38-year-old will fight at 115 lbs and stands 5'4". The southpaw fighter extends her reach 65". Robertson comes in at 5'5" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 16-8-0. The 30-year-old extends her reach 63". When it comes to grappling, Amanda Lemos is able to score a takedown 1.02 times per 15 min while Gillian Robertson takes her opponents to the mat 2.74 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Lemos lands an average of 2.75 strikes/minute and connecting on 55% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Gillian Robertson, who is landing 48% of the strikes she has attempted and connects on 2.86 per min.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Montse Rendon is set to square up against Bia Mesquita. Mesquita comes into this fight holding a mark of 6-0-0. The 34-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 67". Rendon stands in at 5'8" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 7-1-0. The 36-year-old stretches 68". Concerning grappling, Bia Mesquita is able to defend against 15% of the takedowns her opponents try and is taking her opponents to the canvas on 66% of her tries. Rendon is taking her opponents to the mat on 37% of the attempts she tries and is able to stop 85% of all takedown tries against her. In the category of striking, Mesquita is absorbing 0.83 strikes/min and she is dealing 4.98 strikes/minute. Rendon, in contrast, is absorbing 3.42 strikes/min and connects on 3.09 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Luan Lacerda (+205)
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