Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato Pick, 03/07/2026 Predictions UFC 326 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/6/2026

Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato

UFC 326

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Luke Fernandez will face off against Rodolfo Bellato at UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, 2026. The odds have Fernandez priced at -215 while Bellato is coming in at +185.

Luke Fernandez looks to add a victory to his record of 6-0-0. The 30-year-old weighs 205 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 76". Rodolfo "Trator" Bellato comes in at 6'3" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 12-3-1 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has an arm span of 75". Concerning significant strikes, Luke Fernandez is connecting on 32.00 per min while Rodolfo Bellato is connecting on 5.13 significant strikes per min. Fernandez connects on 100% of the significant strikes he tries and Bellato connects on 59%. Concerning their defense in the cage, Fernandez allows 0.00 significant strikes per minute while "Trator" takes 5.86. Fernandez also deflects 100% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Bellato defends against 46% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Rodolfo Bellato ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 326	Luke Fernandez	Rodolfo Bellato
Opening Odds	-215	+185
Record	6-0-0	12-3-1 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	0:15	10:26
Height	6'1"	6'3"
Weight	205 lbs	205 lbs
Reach	76"	75"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	32.00	5.13
Striking Accuracy	100%	59%

In terms of grappling, Luke Fernandez is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents down 0.65 times per 15 min. Fernandez is getting his opponent to the mat on 10% of the times he tries and stopping 10% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Bellato is getting his opponent to the mat on 35% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 94% of all takedowns attempted on him. In terms of submissions, Fernandez is the more experienced submission fighter by trying 0.7 submissions per 3 rds while Bellato goes for 0.2 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his last fight, Luke Fernandez faced Rafael Pergentino and ended up getting the victory in the fight by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Pergentino ended up landing 0 of 1 total strikes attempted in that contest. Fernandez ended the night having landed 8 of 8 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Pergentino landed 0 of 1, which means his percentage was 0%. He finished the fight landing 0 of 1 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Fernandez ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 8 of 8. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 8 of 8 aimed at the head. 0% of the significant strikes connected on by Pergentino and 25% of them landed by Fernandez were thrown at distance.

In the last bout for Rodolfo Bellato, he went up against Navajo Stirling and ended up walking away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Stirling connected on 86% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Bellato connected on 90% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Bellato ended up connecting on 48% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 43 of 89. He connected on 21 of 60 significant strikes directed at the head. Stirling ended up landing 81 of 158 significant strikes in that battle. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 44 of 102 to the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Stirling was 101 of 193 and Bellato landed 62 of 111 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Max Holloway goes up against Charles Oliveira. Holloway steps into the Octagon with a record of 27-8-0. The 34-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 69". Oliveira stands 5'10" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 36-11-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old has an arm span of 74". In terms of takedowns, Max Holloway takes his opponents to the mat 0.24 times per 15 minutes and Charles Oliveira takes his opponents to the mat 2.22 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Holloway is connecting on 7.20 strikes/min and is landing 48% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage we have Charles Oliveira, who connects on 54% of the strikes he has thrown and connects for an average of 3.35 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Reinier de Ridder is set to encounter Caio Borralho. Borralho walks into the Octagon holding a record of 17-2-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 75". de Ridder stands in at 6'4" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 21-3-0. The 35-year-old has a reach of 78". Concerning grappling, Caio Borralho curbs 76% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 48% of his tries. de Ridder is finishing his takedowns on 30% of his tries and is able to curb 50% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With reference to striking, Borralho takes 2.50 strikes/minute while he connects on 3.44 strikes per minute. de Ridder, moreover, takes 2.04 strikes per minute and is dealing 2.20 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Luke Fernandez (-215)

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Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato Pick, 03/07/2026 Predictions UFC 326 Odds

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