Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III Pick, 07/11/2026 Predictions UFC 329 Odds
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III
UFC 329
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Luke Riley will face off against Kai Kamaka III at UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. The odds have Riley priced at -282 while III is priced at +242.
Luke Riley walks into the cage holding a record of 13-0-0. The 27-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 69". Kai "Da Fighting Hawaiian" Kamaka III comes in at 5'7" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 18-7-1. The 31-year-old extends his reach 69". In terms of significant strikes, Luke Riley lands 5.56 per minute while Kai Kamaka III is landing 5.40 significant strikes per minute. Riley is connecting on 57% of the significant strikes he throws while Kamaka III is connecting on 59%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, Riley allows 3.32 significant strikes per min and "Da Fighting Hawaiian" takes 5.67. Riley also thwarts 64% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Kamaka III prevents 56% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC 329 | Luke Riley | Kai Kamaka III |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -282 | +242 |
| Record | 13-0-0 | 18-7-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:15 | 13:54 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.56 | 5.40 |
| Striking Accuracy | 57% | 59% |
In terms of takedowns, Luke Riley is not as efficient of a grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.70 times per 3 rounds. Riley is taking his opponents to the canvas on 10% of his attempts and stopping 37% of all takedown tries against him. Kamaka III is finishing his takedowns on 53% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 55% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Riley is the more apt fighter by going for 0.8 subs per 15 minutes while Kamaka III looks to get 0.2 subs per 3 rds.
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In his previous fight, Luke Riley fought Michael Aswell Jr. and wound up taking home the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Jr. ended up landing 107 of 233 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Riley finished this fight landing 113 of 192 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Jr. landed 61 of 180, which gave him a percentage of 33%. He finished the fight landing 48 of 158 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Riley ended up landing 56% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 100 of 177. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 65 of 134 pointed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes landed by Jr. and 90% of them landed by Riley were tallied at distance.
In the last fight for Kai Kamaka III, he battled Dakota Hope and wound up getting the victory by split decision in round 3. Hope ended up landing 57% of his significant strikes at distance and III ended up connecting on 79% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. III ended up landing 66% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 105 of 159. He ended up connecting on 44 of 94 significant strikes to the head. Hope ended up connecting on 106 of 258 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 62 of 201 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Hope landed 155 of 312 and III ended up landing 144 of 199 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Damian Pinas squares up against Cesar Almeida. Pinas will be looking to add a victory to his total of 9-1-0. The 24-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter stretches 79". Almeida comes in at 6'1" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 7-2-0. The 38-year-old reaches 74". In the grappling category, Damian Pinas is averaging a takedown 0.90 times per 3 rounds while Cesar Almeida takes his opponents down 0.60 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Pinas tags his opponents 7.50 strikes per minute and landing 56% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Cesar Almeida, who connects on 58% of the strikes he has thrown and lands an average of 3.46 per minute.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Zach Reese is set to fight Ryan Gandra. Gandra walks into the cage holding a mark of 9-1-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and measures 6'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 74". Reese measures in at 6'4" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 10-3-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old reaches 77". In terms of grappling, Ryan Gandra is able to defend against 90% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is getting his opponent to the mat on 10% of his tries. Reese is finishing his takedown tries on 61% of his tries and is able to deflect 52% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Gandra is taking 1.70 strikes per minute while he is landing 13.02 per minute. Reese, at the same time, is absorbing 3.92 strikes/minute and connects on 4.48 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Kai Kamaka III (+242)
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