Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Pick, 03/21/2026 Predictions UFC London Odds

Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell

UFC London

O2 Arena in London

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Luke Riley will take on Michael Aswell at UFC London on Saturday, March 21, 2026. The odds have Riley at -180 while Aswell is at +155.

Luke Riley comes into this bout with a record of 12-0-0. The 26-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 69". Michael "The Texas Kid" Aswell measures in at 5'8" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 11-3-0. The 25-year-old has a wingspan of 69". Regarding significant strikes, Luke Riley is landing 2.55 per min while Michael Aswell is connecting on 9.56 significant strikes per minute. Riley lands 60% of the significant strikes he throws and Aswell connects on 45%. In terms of defending in the cage, Riley takes 1.27 significant strikes per min and "The Texas Kid" takes 7.79. Riley also defends against 46% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Aswell defends against 54% of the shots thrown.

In the grappling category, Luke Riley is the better grappler as he scores a takedown 0.90 times per 3 rounds. Riley is scoring a takedown on 15% of the times he tries and thwarting 42% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Aswell is taking his opponents down on 15% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 57% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to going for the sub, Riley is the more capable fighter by trying 0.9 finishes per 15 minutes while Aswell goes for 0.7 finishes per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Luke Riley faced Bogdan Grad and ended up getting the victory by a punch to the head in round 2. Grad ended up landing 17 of 24 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Riley ended the night having landed 20 of 32 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Grad ended up landing 7 of 13, giving him a percentage of 53%. He finished the fight landing 6 of 12 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Riley ended up landing 60% of his significant strikes by connecting on 14 of 23. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 11 of 19 aimed at the head. 14% of the significant strikes connected on by Grad and 28% of them landed by Riley were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Michael Aswell, he faced off with Lucas Almeida and wound up taking home the win by way of punches to the head from the mount position in round 1. Almeida landed 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Aswell ended up landing 63% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Aswell connected on 55% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 30 of 54. He ended up connecting on 30 of 53 significant strikes aimed at the head. Almeida ended up connecting on 9 of 21 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 3 of 14 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that contest, Almeida was 9 of 21 while Aswell was 34 of 59 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Michael Page squares up against Sam Patterson. Page looks to add a victory to his career total of 24-3-0. The 38-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The switch fighter has an arm span of 79". Patterson stands 6'3" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 14-2-1. The 29-year-old extends his reach 78". In the grappling category, Michael Page scores a takedown 0.23 times per 3 rds while Sam Patterson gets a takedown 1.39 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Page tags his opponents 2.39 strikes per min and is connecting on 60% of the strikes that he throws. Joining him in the Octagon is Sam Patterson, who tags the opposition on 43% of his attempted strikes and lands 3.89 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Austen Lane is set to enter the Octagon with Iwo Baraniewski. Baraniewski will be looking to add a win to his career total of 7-0-0. The 27-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter reaches 73". Lane stands in at 6'6" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 13-7-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old reaches 80". When it comes to takedowns, Iwo Baraniewski stops 85% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his attempts. Lane is finishing his takedown tries on 28% of the attempts he tries and prevents 33% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Baraniewski absorbs 17.61 strikes per min while he is connecting on 14.31 strikes per min. Lane, notwithstanding, is absorbing 2.23 strikes/min and connects on 2.74 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Michael Aswell (+155)

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