Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco Pick, 03/21/2026 Predictions UFC London Odds

Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco

UFC London

O2 Arena in London

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Mario Pinto will enter the Octagon with Felipe Franco at UFC London on Saturday, March 21, 2026. The opening moneyline has Pinto priced at -900 while Franco is priced at +600.

Mario Pinto walks into the cage with a record of 11-0-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 265 lbs and measures 6'5". The orthodox fighter stretches 79". Felipe "Negao" Franco comes in at 6'1" and steps on the scale at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 10-1-0. The 25-year-old stretches 76". When talking about significant strikes, Mario Pinto connects on 3.39 per min and Felipe Franco connects on 2.23 significant strikes per minute. Pinto is connecting on 78% of the significant strikes he attempts while Franco lands 71%. In terms of defending themselves, Pinto takes 2.42 significant strikes per min while "Negao" absorbs 2.84. Pinto also deflects 53% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Franco is able to deflect 35% of the strikes thrown his way.

When it comes to wrestling, Mario Pinto is not as effective of a wrestler as he gets a takedown 2.72 times per 15 min. Pinto is getting his opponent to the mat on 60% of his tries and is defending 85% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Franco is scoring a takedown on 40% of his takedown tries and defending 85% of the attempts against him. When it comes to sub attempts, Pinto is the more skilled fighter by trying 1.8 finishes per 15 min while Franco tries 0.9 finishes per 3 rds.

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The last time he fought, Mario Pinto faced Jhonata Diniz and wound up taking home the win by way of punches to the head from the mount position in round 2. Diniz landed 4 of 9 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Pinto walked away from this fight having landed 87 of 102 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Diniz landed 1 of 5, which gave him a rate of 20%. He finished the fight landing 0 of 2 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Pinto landed 87% of his significant strikes by connecting on 29 of 33. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he was 28 of 31 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Diniz and 6% of them landed by Pinto were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Felipe Franco, he fought Freddy Vidal and took a loss on the night by rear naked choke in round 3. Vidal connected on 19% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Franco landed 42% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Franco ended up landing 71% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 33 of 46. He connected on 18 of 29 significant strikes directed at the head. Vidal landed 42 of 65 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 33 of 54 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Vidal ended up landing 105 of 146 and Franco connected on 42 of 57 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Mantas Kondratavicius takes on Antonio Trocoli. Kondratavicius comes into this fight with a record of 8-1-0. The 26-year-old weighs 185 lbs and measures 6'2". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 75". Trocoli measures 6'5" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 12-6-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old extends his reach 80". In the grappling category, Mantas Kondratavicius scores a takedown 13.64 times per 3 rounds and Antonio Trocoli takes his opponents to the mat 0.79 times per 3 rounds. Regarding striking, Kondratavicius lands 4.55 strikes/min and is landing 33% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Antonio Trocoli, who is connecting on 50% of the strikes he has thrown and lands 1.37 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Brando Pericic is set to square up in the Octagon with Louie Sutherland. Sutherland steps into the Octagon holding a record of 10-4-0. The 32-year-old is weighing in at 264 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 76". Pericic comes in at 6'5" and is weighing in at 245 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 5-1-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 79". Regarding wrestling, Louie Sutherland prevents 15% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is scoring a takedown on 15% of his attempts. Pericic is finishing his takedowns on 15% of the attempts he tries and deflects 85% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Sutherland is absorbing 3.57 strikes/min while he is connecting on 2.14 strikes per minute. Pericic, at the same time, is absorbing 1.57 strikes per minute and is dishing out 15.13 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Felipe Franco (+600)

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