Marlon Vera vs David Martinez Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

by Tony Sink - 2/27/2026

Marlon Vera vs David Martinez

UFC Mexico

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Marlon Vera will battle David Martinez at UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The opening line has Vera at +235 while Martinez is priced at -275.

Marlon "Chito" Vera steps into the cage with a record of 23-11-1. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands 5' 8". The switch fighter extends his reach 70". David "Doctor" Martinez measures in at 5' 5" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 13-1-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 67". Concerning significant strikes, Marlon Vera lands 4.25 per min and David Martinez is landing 4.85 significant strikes per minute. Vera connects on 48% of the significant strikes he throws while Martinez lands 47%. In terms of defending in the cage, "Chito" allows 5.37 significant strikes per minute while "Doctor" takes 2.95. Vera also stops 49% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Martinez is able to deflect 68% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Marlon Vera predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico	Marlon Vera	David Martinez
Opening Odds	+235	-275
Record	23-11-1	13-1-0
Average Fight Time	13:33	11:33
Height	5' 8"	5' 5"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	70"	67"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.25	4.85
Striking Accuracy	48%	47%

When it comes to wrestling, Marlon Vera is not as effective of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.49 times per 15 minutes. Vera is getting his opponent to the mat on 39% of his attempts and is stopping 72% of the takedowns his opponents try. Martinez is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 85% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Vera is the more skilled fighter by trying 0.8 finishes per 3 rounds while Martinez tries 0.4 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his last fight, Marlon Vera faced Aiemann Zahabi and wound up walking away in defeat by way of split decision in round 3. Zahabi ended up landing 81 of 152 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Vera finished this fight landing 56 of 153 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Zahabi landed 81 of 152, giving him a percentage of 53%. He finished the fight landing 47 of 107 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Vera landed 36% of his significant strikes by landing 56 of 152. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 30 of 107 to the head. 97% of the significant strikes landed by Zahabi and 98% of them connected on by Vera were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for David Martinez, he battled Rob Font and ended up winning this fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Font ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Martinez landed 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Martinez ended up landing 40% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 62 of 155. He ended up connecting on 33 of 115 significant strikes directed at the head. Font connected on 49 of 158 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 40 of 138 directed at the head. In terms of the total strikes thrown in this fight, Font ended up connecting on 49 of 158 while Martinez ended up connecting on 115 of 210 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Daniel Zellhuber squares up against King Green. Zellhuber walks into the cage holding a mark of 15-3-0. The 26-year-old records a weight of 155 lbs and comes in at 6' 1". The switch fighter extends his reach 77". Green measures 5' 10" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 33-17-1 (1 NC). The 39-year-old stretches 71". Regarding grappling, Daniel Zellhuber takes his opponents to the canvas 0.15 times per 3 rounds and King Green takes his opponents down 1.21 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, Zellhuber connects on 5.83 strikes per minute and is landing 39% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is King Green, who connects on 52% of the strikes he attempts and connects for an average of 6.30 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Felipe Bunes is set to square up against Edgar Chairez. Chairez will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 12-6-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and stands 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Bunes comes in at 5' 7" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 14-8-0. The 36-year-old extends his reach 69". Concerning wrestling, Edgar Chairez is stopping 33% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of the times he tries. Bunes is finishing his takedown tries on 22% of the tries he takes and prevents 40% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Chairez is taking 5.08 strikes/min and he deals 3.44 per minute. Bunes, on the contrary, takes 4.66 strikes per min and dishes out 2.93 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take David Martinez (-275)

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Marlon Vera vs David Martinez Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds

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