Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick Pick, 03/14/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 114 Odds

Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick

UFC Vegas 114

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Marwan Rahiki will take on Harry Hardwick at UFC Vegas 114 on Saturday, March 14, 2026. The line has Rahiki coming in at -275 while Hardwick is coming in at +235.

Marwan "Freaky" Rahiki steps into the cage holding a record of 7-0-0. The 23-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Harry "Houdini" Hardwick comes in at 5'8" and weighs 145 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 13-4-1. The 31-year-old stretches 71". Regarding significant strikes, Marwan Rahiki lands 5.96 per minute and Harry Hardwick is connecting on 2.39 significant strikes per minute. Rahiki is connecting on 47% of the significant strikes he throws while Hardwick lands 34%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Freaky" takes 6.10 significant strikes per minute while "Houdini" takes 7.16. Rahiki also curbs 56% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Hardwick is able to stop 40% of them.

Concerning grappling, Marwan Rahiki is not as efficient of a wrestler as he scores a takedown 1.20 times per 3 rds. Rahiki is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of the times he tries and defending 85% of all takedown tries against him. Hardwick is taking his opponents down on 15% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 15% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Rahiki is the more experienced submission fighter by going for 2.1 submissions per 15 minutes while Hardwick tries 0.3 submissions per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Marwan Rahiki went up against Ananias Mulumba and ended up getting the victory in the fight via a punch to the head in round 2. Mulumba ended up landing 55 of 115 total strikes attempted in that contest. Rahiki walked away from this fight having landed 46 of 98 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Mulumba ended up landing 44 of 100, which gave him a rate of 44%. He ended up landing 29 of 80 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Rahiki ended up landing 47% of his significant strikes by connecting on 43 of 91. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 27 of 67 aimed at the head. 61% of the significant strikes connected on by Mulumba and 93% of them connected on by Rahiki were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Harry Hardwick, he fought Kaue Fernandes and ended up walking away in defeat by way of a kick to the leg at distance in round 1. Fernandes ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Hardwick ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Hardwick connected on 34% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 8 of 23. He ended up connecting on 6 of 18 significant strikes to the head. Fernandes landed 24 of 40 significant strikes in that battle. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 11 of 24 to the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Fernandes landed 24 of 40 while Hardwick landed 8 of 23 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Vitor Petrino opposes Steven Asplund. Petrino has a career record of 13-2-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 225 lbs and comes in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Asplund comes in at 6'5" and is fighting at 260 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 7-1-0. The 27-year-old has a reach of 78". In the grappling category, Vitor Petrino scores a takedown 3.04 times per 3 rds and Steven Asplund takes his opponents down 1.70 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Petrino connects for an average of 2.75 strikes/minute and is landing 46% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Steven Asplund, who tags the opposition on 58% of the strikes he has attempted and is landing 19.93 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Bruno Silva is set to enter the Octagon against Charles Johnson. Johnson looks to add a victory to his total of 18-8-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and stands 5'9". The switch fighter extends his reach 70". Silva measures in at 5'4" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 15-7-2 (1 NC). The 35-year-old extends his reach 65". Regarding wrestling, Charles Johnson prevents 66% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is taking his opponents down on 20% of the times he tries. Silva is finishing his takedowns on 29% of his attempts and is able to thwart 63% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, Johnson is absorbing 3.94 strikes per minute and he is dealing 4.68 per min. Silva, on the contrary, is taking 4.55 strikes per min and is dishing out 3.82 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Marwan Rahiki (-275)

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