Melissa Croden vs Daria Zhelezniakova Pick, 04/18/2026 Predictions UFC Winnipeg Odds
Melissa Croden vs Daria Zhelezniakova
UFC Winnipeg
Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg
Saturday, April 18, 2026
Melissa Croden will enter the Octagon against Daria Zhelezniakova at UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, 2026. The opening line has Croden coming in at -153 while Zhelezniakova is at +133.
Melissa "Scare" Croden steps into the cage with a mark of 7-3-0. The 35-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 68". Daria "Iron Lady" Zhelezniakova measures in at 5'9" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her career record of 10-2-0. The 30-year-old extends her reach 68". When talking about significant strikes, Melissa Croden connects on 4.10 per minute while Daria Zhelezniakova is landing 4.75 significant strikes per minute. Croden connects on 48% of the significant strikes she attempts while Zhelezniakova is landing 41%. In terms of defending in the cage, "Scare" takes 1.83 significant strikes per min while "Iron Lady" absorbs 2.83. Croden also prevents 53% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her and Zhelezniakova defends against 68% of the shots thrown in her direction.
| UFC Winnipeg | Melissa Croden | Daria Zhelezniakova |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -153 | +133 |
| Record | 7-3-0 | 10-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 14:46 | 11:17 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 68" | 68" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Striking Accuracy | 48% | 41% |
Concerning wrestling, Melissa Croden is the more capable grappler as she takes her opponents to the mat 1.02 times per 15 min. Croden is scoring a takedown on 50% of her tries and stuffing 66% of all takedown attempts. Zhelezniakova is scoring a takedown on 80% of her takedown tries and is defending 50% of the attempts against her. When it comes to submission attempts, Croden is less apt at going for the finish by trying 0.5 finishes per 3 rounds while Zhelezniakova looks to get 0.8 finishes per 3 rds.
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The last time she fought, Melissa Croden faced Luana Santos and wound up walking away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Santos ended up landing 93 of 110 total strikes that she let go. Croden walked away from this fight having landed 56 of 109 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Santos ended up landing 12 of 24, which gave her a rate of 50%. She landed 6 of 16 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Croden ended up landing 29% of her significant strikes by connecting on 22 of 74. Out of those significant strikes, she connected on 9 of 53 aimed at the head. 83% of the significant strikes connected on by Santos and 81% of them landed by Croden were done at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Daria Zhelezniakova, she battled Melissa Mullins and wound up getting the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Mullins ended up connecting on 95% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance while Zhelezniakova landed 98% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance. Zhelezniakova ended up landing 44% of her significant strikes attempted by connecting on 99 of 223. She ended up landing 67 of 172 significant strikes directed at the head. Mullins connected on 64 of 148 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, she ended up landing 43 of 124 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that she let go in that contest, Mullins connected on 77 of 165 and Zhelezniakova was 103 of 228 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another fight to keep an eye on is when JJ Aldrich meets Jamey-Lyn Horth. Aldrich comes into this bout holding a record of 14-7-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The southpaw fighter reaches 67". Horth measures 5'7" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 9-2-0. The 36-year-old reaches 66". Regarding grappling, JJ Aldrich is able to score a takedown 0.75 times per 15 minutes while Jamey-Lyn Horth takes her opponents to the mat 1.17 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, Aldrich is landing 3.96 strikes/min and landing 47% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Jamey-Lyn Horth, who lands 55% of the strikes she attempts and connects for an average of 3.63 per min.
One more can't miss bout is when Mike Malott is set to enter the Octagon against Gilbert Burns. Burns steps into the cage holding a record of 22-9-0. The 39-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 71". Malott measures in at 6'1" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 13-2-1. The 34-year-old stretches 73". Regarding wrestling, Gilbert Burns thwarts 53% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown tries on 37% of his tries. Malott is taking his opponents down on 50% of the tries he takes and defends against 14% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Burns takes 3.64 strikes per min and he deals 3.15 strikes per minute. Malott, on the other hand, is taking 3.06 strikes per minute and is dealing 3.93 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Daria Zhelezniakova (+133)
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