Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez Pick, 01/24/2026 Predictions UFC 324 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 1/22/2026

Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez

UFC 324

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, January 24, 2026

Michael Johnson will enter the Octagon with Alexander Hernandez at UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, 2026. The opening odds have Johnson priced at +135 while Hernandez is at -155.

Michael "The Menace" Johnson comes into this fight with a mark of 25-19-0. The 39-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 73". Alexander "El Gran Chango" Hernandez stands 5'9" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 18-8-0. The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 72". With respect to significant strikes, Michael Johnson connects on 4.28 per minute and Alexander Hernandez is landing 4.31 significant strikes per minute. Johnson connects on 39% of the significant strikes he throws and Hernandez is landing 40%. In terms of defending themselves, "The Menace" absorbs 3.79 significant strikes per min while "El Gran Chango" takes 4.50. Johnson also prevents 58% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Hernandez is able to stop 59% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Michael Johnson predictions best bet odds

UFC 324	Michael Johnson	Alexander Hernandez
Opening Odds	+135	-155
Record	25-19-0	18-8-0
Average Fight Time	11:37	10:05
Height	5'10"	5'9"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	73"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.28	4.31
Striking Accuracy	39%	40%

In the category of takedowns, Michael Johnson is the lesser skilled wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 0.58 times per 15 minutes. Johnson is scoring a takedown on 38% of his attempts and is stopping 81% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Hernandez is scoring a takedown on 36% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 73% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Johnson is the more apt fighter by going for 0.5 submissions per 15 min while Hernandez tries 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes.

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In his last bout, Michael Johnson fought Daniel Zellhuber and took home the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Zellhuber landed 52 of 182 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Johnson ended the night having landed 81 of 196 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Zellhuber ended up landing 52 of 182, which gave him a rate of 28%. He ended up landing 19 of 125 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Johnson ended up landing 41% of his significant strikes by landing 80 of 195. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 27 of 100 to the head. 96% of the significant strikes landed by Zellhuber and 96% of them landed by Johnson were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Alexander Hernandez, he battled Diego Ferreira and ended up getting the win by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Ferreira ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Hernandez landed 66% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Hernandez connected on 40% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 30 of 75. He ended up connecting on 22 of 63 significant strikes aimed at the head. Ferreira ended up landing 23 of 98 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 8 of 56 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Ferreira connected on 23 of 98 while Hernandez ended up connecting on 30 of 75 total strikes.

Other fights to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Josh Hokit enters the Octagon against Denzel Freeman. Hokit steps into the cage with a mark of 7-0-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 236 lbs and comes in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 73". Freeman stands 6'1" and is weighing in at 265 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 7-1-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 77". Regarding grappling, Josh Hokit scores a takedown 12.80 times per 15 min and Denzel Freeman scores a takedown 0.86 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Hokit is landing 5.12 strikes/min and connecting on 69% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Denzel Freeman, who tags his opponent on 62% of the strikes he attempts and connects for an average of 3.27 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Cameron Smotherman is set to go up against Ricky Turcios. Turcios comes into this fight with a record of 13-5-0. The 32-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 71". Smotherman stands 5'9" and will fight at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 12-6-0. The 28-year-old has an arm span of 69". Concerning grappling, Ricky Turcios is stopping 44% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is scoring a takedown on 20% of his tries. Smotherman is taking his opponents down on 15% of his attempts and is able to curb 62% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Turcios is absorbing 3.72 strikes per minute while he is connecting on 4.73 strikes/minute. Smotherman, on the contrary, is taking 3.52 strikes/min and deals 4.07 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Michael Johnson (+135)

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Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez Pick, 01/24/2026 Predictions UFC 324 Odds

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