Patricio Freire vs Aaron Pico Pick, 04/11/2026 Predictions UFC 327 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 4/10/2026

Patricio Freire vs Aaron Pico

UFC 327

Kaseya Center in Miami

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Patricio Freire will enter the Octagon against Aaron Pico at UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, 2026. The opening moneyline has Freire coming in at +285 while Pico is coming in at -350.

Patricio "Pitbull" Freire steps into the Octagon holding a record of 37-8-0. The 38-year-old is weighing in at 145 lbs and stands 5'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 67". Aaron Pico comes in at 5'8" and will fight at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 13-5-0. The 29-year-old reaches 70". Concerning significant strikes, Patricio Freire lands 2.68 per minute and Aaron Pico is landing 3.88 significant strikes per minute. Freire lands 43% of the significant strikes he throws while Pico is landing 44%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "Pitbull" takes 4.23 significant strikes per minute and Pico takes 2.39. Freire also defends 57% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Pico is able to defend against 50% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Aaron Pico predictions best bet odds

UFC 327	Patricio Freire	Aaron Pico
Opening Odds	+285	-350
Record	37-8-0	13-5-0
Average Fight Time	16:04	3:21
Height	5'6"	5'8"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	67"	70"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.68	3.88
Striking Accuracy	43%	44%

Concerning grappling, Patricio Freire is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.49 times per 15 min. Freire is taking his opponents to the canvas on 33% of his tries and is stuffing 88% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Pico is finishing his takedowns on 66% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 15% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Freire is the more capable fighter by attempting 0.6 submissions per 3 rds while Pico looks to get 0.3 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Patricio Freire went up against Dan Ige and wound up taking home the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Ige landed 59 of 145 total strikes attempted in that contest. Freire walked away from this fight having landed 71 of 114 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Ige landed 47 of 124, which gave him a rate of 37%. He finished the fight landing 24 of 93 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Freire landed 56% of his significant strikes by sticking 55 of 97. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 42 of 82 pointed at the head. 80% of the significant strikes landed by Ige and 76% of them connected on by Freire were done at distance.

In the last fight for Aaron Pico, he went up against Lerone Murphy and wound up walking away in defeat by a spinning back elbow to the head in round 1. Murphy connected on 75% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Pico ended up landing 53% of his significant strikes at distance. Pico connected on 44% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 13 of 29. He landed 7 of 23 significant strikes aimed at the head. Murphy ended up landing 8 of 16 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 4 of 9 to the head. When discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Murphy ended up connecting on 8 of 16 and Pico ended up landing 13 of 30 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch out for

One more match to look forward to is when Kevin Holland squares up in the Octagon against Randy Brown. Holland steps into the cage holding a mark of 28-15-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 81". Brown measures 6'3" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 20-7-0. The 35-year-old reaches 78". Regarding grappling, Kevin Holland takes his opponents to the canvas 0.83 times per 3 rds while Randy Brown is averaging a takedown 0.76 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Holland connects on 4.26 strikes/min and is landing 49% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Randy Brown, who tags his opponent on 47% of the strikes he has attempted and lands an average of 4.49 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Esteban Ribovics is set to enter the Octagon with Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot comes into this bout holding a record of 25-4-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 70". Ribovics measures 5'10" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 15-2-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 69". Regarding takedowns, Mateusz Gamrot stops 83% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedown attempts on 37% of his attempts. Ribovics is taking his opponents to the mat on 66% of his attempts and defends against 70% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Gamrot takes 2.96 strikes per minute and he deals 3.29 strikes per min. Ribovics, on the other side, takes 6.30 strikes/minute and is connecting on 8.09 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Aaron Pico (-350)

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Patricio Freire vs Aaron Pico Pick, 04/11/2026 Predictions UFC 327 Odds

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