Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay Pick, 03/07/2026 Predictions UFC 326 Odds

by Tony Sink - 3/6/2026

Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay

UFC 326

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Rafael Tobias will enter the Octagon against Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, 2026. The opening moneyline has Tobias coming in at -175 while Nurgozhay is at +150.

Rafael "Bipolar" Tobias looks to add a victory to his total of 14-1-0. The 22-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Diyar Nurgozhay measures 6'2" and will fight at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his record of 10-2-0. The 28-year-old stretches 74". Regarding significant strikes, Rafael Tobias is connecting on 3.45 per minute and Diyar Nurgozhay is connecting on 3.04 significant strikes per minute. Tobias is landing 30% of the significant strikes he throws and Nurgozhay lands 50%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Bipolar" absorbs 3.98 significant strikes per minute and Nurgozhay allows 2.99. Tobias also curbs 40% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Nurgozhay defends against 61% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Diyar Nurgozhay ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 326	Rafael Tobias	Diyar Nurgozhay
Opening Odds	-175	+150
Record	14-1-0	10-2-0
Average Fight Time	3:46	5:55
Height	6'2"	6'2"
Weight	205 lbs	205 lbs
Reach	74"	74"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.45	3.04
Striking Accuracy	30%	50%

In terms of wrestling, Rafael Tobias is the more efficient wrestler as he takes his opponents down 3.98 times per 15 minutes. Tobias is getting his opponent to the mat on 100% of his tries and is stuffing 10% of all takedowns attempted on him. Nurgozhay is finishing his takedowns on 100% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 100% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Tobias is the more skilled fighter by attempting 4.0 submissions per 15 minutes while Nurgozhay looks to get 0.6 submissions per 3 rounds.

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The last time he fought, Rafael Tobias went up against Jair De Oliveira and got a win for the night via a rear naked choke in round 1. Oliveira ended up landing 15 of 25 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Tobias ended the night having landed 21 of 52 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Oliveira ended up landing 15 of 25, which gave him a percentage of 60%. He ended up landing 5 of 15 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Tobias ended up landing 30% of his significant strikes by landing 13 of 42. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 8 of 34 to the head. 93% of the significant strikes landed by Oliveira and 92% of them landed by Tobias were thrown at distance.

In the last bout for Diyar Nurgozhay, he fought Uran Satybaldiev and wound up walking away in defeat by an ezekiel choke from the guard position in round 1. Satybaldiev ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Nurgozhay ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Nurgozhay connected on 63% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 7 of 11. He ended up landing 1 of 3 significant strikes aimed at the head. Satybaldiev connected on 2 of 9 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 1 of 4 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Satybaldiev was 3 of 10 and Nurgozhay connected on 13 of 19 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights on the card to watch

One more match to look forward to is when JeongYeong Lee faces off with Gaston Bolanos. Lee will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 11-3-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 73". Bolanos measures 5'7" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 8-5-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 69". Regarding grappling, JeongYeong Lee takes his opponents down 0.63 times per 15 minutes and Gaston Bolanos gets a takedown 0.66 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Lee connects for an average of 3.38 strikes/min and connecting on 49% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Gaston Bolanos, who lands 49% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 3.28 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Rodolfo Bellato is set to square up in the Octagon with Luke Fernandez. Fernandez looks to add a victory to his record of 6-0-0. The 30-year-old weighs 205 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 76". Bellato comes in at 6'3" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 12-3-1 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has an arm span of 75". In the category of takedowns, Luke Fernandez is able to curb 10% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 10% of the times he tries. Bellato is taking his opponents to the mat on 35% of his tries and is able to stop 94% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Fernandez is absorbing 0.00 strikes per min and he is landing 32.00 strikes per min. Bellato, on the contrary, absorbs 5.86 strikes per minute and deals 5.13 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Rafael Tobias (-175)

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Start:	March 6, 2026 @ 11:59 PM
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Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay Pick, 03/07/2026 Predictions UFC 326 Odds

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