Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Pick, 10/31/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 123 Odds

Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan

UFC Vegas 123

Meta Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, October 31, 2026

Renato Moicano will face off with Tom Nolan at UFC Vegas 123 on Saturday, October 31, 2026. The opener has Moicano at -131 while Nolan is coming in at +112.

Renato Moicano looks to add a victory to his career record of 21-7-1. The 37-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 72". Tom "Big Train" Nolan stands 6'3" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 11-1-0. The 26-year-old stretches 73". In the category of significant strikes, Renato Moicano is connecting on 4.10 per minute while Tom Nolan lands 4.84 significant strikes per min. Moicano is landing 49% of the significant strikes he throws and Nolan connects on 45%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, Moicano absorbs 3.55 significant strikes per min while "Big Train" allows 3.74. Moicano also deflects 59% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Nolan is able to deflect 48% of the shots thrown in his direction.

When it comes to grappling, Renato Moicano is the more competent wrestler as he takes his opponents down 1.68 times per 15 min. Moicano is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of his attempts and is stopping 64% of all takedown tries against him. Nolan is finishing his takedown tries on 26% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 58% of the tries against him. In terms of going for the submission, Moicano is less likely to go for the finish by going for 0.6 subs per 15 minutes while Nolan tries 1.4 subs per 3 rds.

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In his last bout, Renato Moicano went up against Chris Duncan and got a win for the night via rear naked choke in round 2. Duncan landed 30 of 66 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Moicano finished this fight landing 62 of 84 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Duncan landed 27 of 62, which means his percentage was 43%. He finished the fight landing 8 of 39 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Moicano landed 58% of his significant strikes by connecting on 21 of 36. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 16 of 31 pointed at the head. 92% of the significant strikes connected on by Duncan and 95% of them connected on by Moicano were done at distance.

In the last fight for Tom Nolan, he squared up with Fares Ziam and ended up winning this fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Ziam ended up connecting on 75% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Nolan connected on 41% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Nolan ended up connecting on 46% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 31 of 66. He connected on 13 of 38 significant strikes to the head. Ziam ended up landing 16 of 32 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 11 of 26 to the head. Discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Ziam connected on 48 of 70 while Nolan ended up landing 65 of 116 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Randy Brown faces off against Jacobe Smith. Brown looks to add a victory to his career record of 20-8-0. The 36-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 78". Smith measures 5'10" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 13-0-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 72". In terms of takedowns, Randy Brown takes his opponents to the canvas 0.71 times per 15 min while Jacobe Smith is able to score a takedown 7.92 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Brown tags his opponents 4.39 strikes per min and connects on 47% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Jacobe Smith, who lands 67% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 6.91 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Cody Durden is set to square up in the Octagon against Ode Osbourne. Osbourne comes into this fight with a mark of 13-9-0 (2 NC). The 34-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 73". Durden stands 5'7" and weighs 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 18-11-1. The 35-year-old has a reach of 67". Regarding takedowns, Ode Osbourne is thwarting 66% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is getting his opponent to the mat on 29% of his tries. Durden is finishing his takedown tries on 48% of the tries he takes and is able to stop 56% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Osbourne is absorbing 3.24 strikes per min while he is dishing out 2.94 strikes per minute. Durden, on the other side, absorbs 3.89 strikes/minute and is connecting on 3.27 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Renato Moicano (-131)

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