Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite
UFC Mexico
Arena CDMX in Mexico City
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Sofia Montenegro will face off against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The opening odds have Montenegro coming in at +230 while Kareckaite is at -270.
Sofia "La Bruja" Montenegro will be looking to add a win to her career total of 6-2-0. The 26-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and stands in at 5' 6". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 67". Ernesta "Heavy-Handed" Kareckaite stands 5' 9" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her total of 6-1-1. The 27-year-old stretches 71". In terms of significant strikes, Sofia Montenegro is connecting on 4.27 per minute and Ernesta Kareckaite is connecting on 7.38 significant strikes per min. Montenegro is connecting on 40% of the significant strikes she attempts while Kareckaite is connecting on 42%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, "La Bruja" allows 5.67 significant strikes per minute and "Heavy-Handed" allows 6.09. Montenegro also curbs 48% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her and Kareckaite is able to curb 48% of the strikes thrown her way.
| UFC Mexico | Sofia Montenegro | Ernesta Kareckaite |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +230 | -270 |
| Record | 6-2-0 | 6-1-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:00 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5' 6" | 5' 9" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 67" | 71" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.27 | 7.38 |
| Striking Accuracy | 40% | 42% |
Regarding grappling, Sofia Montenegro is the more productive grappler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 1.00 times per 15 minutes. Montenegro is scoring a takedown on 25% of her tries and stopping 85% of the takedowns her opponents try. Kareckaite is getting her opponent to the mat on 66% of her takedown tries and is stopping 82% of the attempts against her. In terms of submission attempts, Montenegro is the more skilled fighter by going for 0.5 subs per 3 rounds while Kareckaite looks to get 0.2 subs per 3 rds.
Today’s Featured MMA Best Bet!
You can get this top rated play complimentary when you set up a free $60 account here at Doc’s Sports and use part of it towards his a one day MMA package. Join Now!
|
Get all of our UFC Betting Picks
In her last fight, Sofia Montenegro faced Jeisla Chaves and took a loss on the night by split decision in round 3. Chaves ended up landing 97 of 185 total strikes that she let go in that fight. Montenegro finished this fight landing 82 of 188 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Chaves ended up landing 85 of 166, giving her a percentage of 51%. She ended up landing 49 of 122 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Montenegro ended up landing 40% of her significant strikes by sticking 64 of 160. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, she landed 45 of 135 pointed at the head. 90% of the significant strikes connected on by Chaves and 70% of them connected on by Montenegro were tallied at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Ernesta Kareckaite, she faced off with Nicolle Caliari and took home the win via split decision in round 3. Caliari connected on 94% of her significant strikes at distance and Kareckaite connected on 91% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance. Kareckaite ended up connecting on 42% of the significant strikes she attempted by connecting on 95 of 226. She ended up landing 77 of 199 significant strikes aimed at the head. Caliari landed 67 of 166 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, she ended up landing 36 of 120 directed at the head. Discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Caliari was 86 of 194 and Kareckaite ended up landing 126 of 266 of all the strikes she threw.
0
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Brandon Moreno enters the Octagon with Lone'er Kavanagh. Moreno has a career mark of 23-9-2. The 32-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Kavanagh stands in at 5' 6" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 9-1-0. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 67". Regarding grappling, Brandon Moreno takes his opponents to the canvas 1.47 times per 15 min while Lone'er Kavanagh takes his opponents to the mat 1.79 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Moreno lands 3.89 strikes per min and is landing 44% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Lone'er Kavanagh, who tags his opponent on 49% of his attempted strikes and connects for an average of 4.29 per minute.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when David Martinez is set to face off against Marlon Vera. Vera steps into the cage with a record of 23-11-1. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands 5' 8". The switch fighter extends his reach 70". Martinez measures in at 5' 5" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 13-1-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 67". In terms of grappling, Marlon Vera defends against 72% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is getting his opponent to the mat on 39% of his attempts. Martinez is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of his tries and thwarts 85% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Vera is absorbing 5.37 strikes/min while he is dealing 4.25 per min. Martinez, on the other hand, is taking 2.95 strikes per min and is dealing 4.85 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Ernesta Kareckaite (-270)
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Get all of Today's Free UFC Picks
Get all of Today's Expert UFC Picks
Most Recent UFC Picks
- Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds
- Marlon Vera vs David Martinez Pick, 02/28/2026 Predictions UFC Mexico Odds