Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez Pick, 10/31/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 123 Odds
Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez
UFC Vegas 123
Meta Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Talita Alencar will battle Piera Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 123 on Saturday, October 31, 2026. The opening moneyline has Alencar at +247 while Rodriguez is coming in at -300.
Talita "Problem Child" Alencar holds a career record of 8-1-1. The 36-year-old is fighting at 115 lbs and stands 5'1". The orthodox fighter stretches 58". Piera "La Fiera" Rodriguez comes in at 5'3" and is fighting at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 12-2-0. The 33-year-old reaches 63". In terms of significant strikes, Talita Alencar is landing 3.09 per minute and Piera Rodriguez is connecting on 4.04 significant strikes per min. Alencar is landing 36% of the significant strikes she tries while Rodriguez is landing 46%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "Problem Child" absorbs 3.67 significant strikes per minute and "La Fiera" takes 3.13. Alencar also stops 51% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her while Rodriguez thwarts 53% of the strikes thrown her way.
| UFC Vegas 123 | Talita Alencar | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +247 | -300 |
| Record | 8-1-1 | 12-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 14:56 | 13:27 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'3" |
| Weight | 115 lbs | 115 lbs |
| Reach | 58" | 63" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.09 | 4.04 |
| Striking Accuracy | 36% | 46% |
Concerning takedowns, Talita Alencar is the not as competent as a grappler as she takes her opponents to the mat 3.01 times per 15 min. Alencar is getting her opponent to the mat on 29% of her tries and stopping 66% of the takedowns her opponents try. Rodriguez is getting her opponent to the mat on 50% of her takedown tries and stuffing 81% of the attempts against her. When it comes to going for the submission, Alencar is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by trying 0.5 submissions per 15 min while Rodriguez attempts 0.8 submissions per 3 rounds.
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In her previous bout, Talita Alencar faced Julia Polastri and wound up getting the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Polastri landed 87 of 125 total strikes that she let go. Alencar finished this fight landing 80 of 216 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Polastri landed 78 of 111, which means her percentage was 70%. She ended up landing 48 of 78 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Alencar landed 30% of her significant strikes by landing 60 of 195. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, she connected on 34 of 151 pointed at the head. 92% of the significant strikes landed by Polastri and 90% of them connected on by Alencar were tallied at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Piera Rodriguez, she fought Sam Hughes and ended up getting the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Hughes connected on 84% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance while Rodriguez ended up landing 67% of her significant strikes at distance. Rodriguez landed 46% of her significant strikes attempted by connecting on 107 of 231. She ended up connecting on 52 of 163 significant strikes aimed at the head. Hughes landed 77 of 144 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, she landed 47 of 110 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes that she let go in that contest, Hughes ended up connecting on 91 of 160 while Rodriguez was 111 of 237 of all the strikes she attempted.
Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on
Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Renato Moicano faces off with Tom Nolan. Moicano looks to add a victory to his career record of 21-7-1. The 37-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 72". Nolan stands 6'3" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 11-1-0. The 26-year-old stretches 73". In the grappling category, Renato Moicano gets a takedown 1.68 times per 15 min and Tom Nolan takes his opponents down 1.08 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Moicano connects for an average of 4.10 strikes per min and is connecting on 49% of his attempted strikes. On the other side we have Tom Nolan, who tags the opposition on 45% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 4.84 per min.
Another bout to watch is when Jacobe Smith is set to square up in the Octagon against Randy Brown. Brown looks to add a victory to his career record of 20-8-0. The 36-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 78". Smith measures 5'10" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 13-0-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 72". In terms of wrestling, Randy Brown is able to deflect 74% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 34% of the times he tries. Smith is taking his opponents down on 85% of his tries and prevents 85% of all takedown attempts. Concerning striking, Brown absorbs 3.35 strikes/min while he is dealing 4.39 strikes/min. Smith, on the other side, is absorbing 2.77 strikes per minute and is landing 6.91 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Piera Rodriguez (-300)
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