Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson Pick, 03/28/2026 Predictions UFC Seattle Odds

by Tony Sink - 3/27/2026

Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson

UFC Seattle

Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Terrance McKinney will enter the Octagon against Kyle Nelson at UFC Seattle on Saturday, March 28, 2026. The opening moneyline has McKinney coming in at -173 while Nelson is at +148.

Terrance "T. Wrecks" McKinney looks to add a win to his record of 17-8-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The switch fighter has an arm span of 73". Kyle "The Monster" Nelson stands in at 5'11" and weighs 155 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 17-6-1. The 34-year-old has an arm span of 71". When talking about significant strikes, Terrance McKinney connects on 6.24 per minute and Kyle Nelson is landing 3.60 significant strikes per min. McKinney connects on 56% of the significant strikes he tries and Nelson lands 45%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "T. Wrecks" absorbs 3.46 significant strikes per min and "The Monster" absorbs 4.48. McKinney also stops 43% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Nelson defends against 53% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Terrance McKinney ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Seattle	Terrance McKinney	Kyle Nelson
Opening Odds	-173	+148
Record	17-8-0	17-6-1
Average Fight Time	2:46	10:24
Height	5'10"	5'11"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	73"	71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	6.24	3.60
Striking Accuracy	56%	45%

Regarding wrestling, Terrance McKinney is the more effective grappler as he is able to score a takedown 3.34 times per 15 minutes. McKinney is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of his tries and stopping 72% of all takedown attempts. Nelson is finishing his takedowns on 23% of the takedowns he attempts and is defending 66% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding subbing the opposition, McKinney is the more experienced of the two fighters by trying 2.1 subs per 15 minutes while Nelson tries 0.5 subs per 3 rds.

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In his last bout, Terrance McKinney fought Chris Duncan and ended up losing the fight by an anaconda choke in round 1. Duncan ended up landing 53 of 75 total strikes that he let go in that contest. McKinney finished this fight landing 31 of 57 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Duncan landed 38 of 55, which gave him a percentage of 69%. He finished the fight landing 36 of 51 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, McKinney landed 54% of his significant strikes by connecting on 31 of 57. Out of those significant strikes, he was 26 of 50 to the head. 26% of the significant strikes connected on by Duncan and 77% of them landed by McKinney were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Kyle Nelson, he fought Matt Frevola and ended up getting the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Frevola ended up connecting on 90% of his significant strikes at distance and Nelson ended up landing 73% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Nelson landed 46% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 63 of 135. He ended up connecting on 41 of 103 significant strikes directed at the head. Frevola landed 43 of 136 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 23 of 103 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes attempted in that fight, Frevola ended up landing 60 of 155 while Nelson ended up landing 92 of 170 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Ignacio Bahamondes faces off with Tofiq Musayev. Bahamondes will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 17-6-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 75". Musayev comes in at 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 22-6-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 69". Regarding grappling, Ignacio Bahamondes takes his opponents to the canvas 0.50 times per 15 min while Tofiq Musayev scores a takedown 0.90 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Bahamondes connects on 6.55 strikes/minute and is connecting on 45% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Tofiq Musayev, who tags his opponent on 33% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 0.44 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Lance Gibson Jr. is set to face off against Chase Hooper. Hooper steps into the cage with a record of 16-4-1. The 26-year-old weighs 155 lbs and stands 6'1". The southpaw fighter reaches 74". Gibson Jr. measures 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 9-2-0. The 31-year-old has an arm span of 72". When it comes to takedowns, Chase Hooper prevents 55% of his opponents' takedown tries and is scoring a takedown on 33% of his tries. Gibson Jr. is finishing his takedown tries on 66% of the attempts he tries and prevents 50% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Hooper takes 2.98 strikes/min and he is connecting on 4.51 strikes/minute. Gibson Jr., on the other side, absorbs 4.33 strikes per min and lands 2.00 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Terrance McKinney (-173)

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Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson Pick, 03/28/2026 Predictions UFC Seattle Odds

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