Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young Pick, 04/18/2026 Predictions UFC Winnipeg Odds

Thiago Moises vs Gauge Young

UFC Winnipeg

Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Thiago Moises will face off against Gauge Young at UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, 2026. The opening line has Moises coming in at +110 while Young is coming in at -130.

Thiago Moises will be looking to add a win to his career record of 19-9-0. The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Gauge "Gee Money" Young comes in at 5'9" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 10-3-0. The 25-year-old stretches 70". With respect to significant strikes, Thiago Moises connects on 2.48 per min and Gauge Young is connecting on 5.71 significant strikes per minute. Moises is connecting on 42% of the significant strikes he tries and Young lands 51%. In terms of defending in the cage, Moises allows 4.08 significant strikes per min and "Gee Money" takes 5.82. Moises also stops 53% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Young thwarts 48% of the shots thrown his way.

When it comes to wrestling, Thiago Moises is the more apt grappler as he is averaging a takedown 1.31 times per 15 minutes. Moises is scoring a takedown on 35% of the times he tries and is stuffing 52% of the takedowns his opponents try. Young is finishing his takedowns on 30% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 71% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding sub attempts, Moises is the more skilled fighter by attempting 1.1 subs per 15 minutes while Young looks to get 0.7 subs per 15 minutes.

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The last time he fought, Thiago Moises fought Jared Gordon and ended up losing the fight via a punch to the head in round 1. Gordon landed 21 of 36 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Moises walked away from this fight having landed 11 of 16 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Gordon ended up landing 7 of 13, which gave him a rate of 53%. He landed 5 of 10 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Moises landed 55% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 5 of 9. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 3 of 6 aimed at the head. 71% of the significant strikes connected on by Gordon and 100% of them connected on by Moises were done at distance.

In the last fight for Gauge Young, he battled Maheshate and ended up winning this fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Maheshate ended up connecting on 90% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Young ended up landing 91% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Young connected on 56% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 112 of 200. He ended up landing 64 of 138 significant strikes aimed at the head. Maheshate ended up landing 66 of 150 significant strikes in that contest. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 42 of 118 to the head. Discussing total strikes thrown, Maheshate landed 79 of 166 and Young connected on 131 of 221 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Dennis Buzukja battles Marcio Barbosa. Buzukja will be looking to add a win to his career record of 12-5-0. The 28-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and stands 5'9". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 70". Barbosa comes in at 5'6" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 17-2-0. The 27-year-old reaches 70". Regarding grappling, Dennis Buzukja takes his opponents to the mat 0.63 times per 15 min while Marcio Barbosa scores a takedown 0.30 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Buzukja lands 4.21 strikes/min and is connecting on 43% of the strikes that he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Marcio Barbosa, who tags his opponent on 47% of the strikes that he throws and lands 8.27 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Allan Nascimento is set to take on Mitch Raposo. Raposo has a mark of 10-3-0. The 27-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and stands 5'5". The switch fighter reaches 64". Nascimento comes in at 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 22-6-0. The 34-year-old has an arm span of 69". Regarding wrestling, Mitch Raposo is preventing 61% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown tries on 37% of the times he tries. Nascimento is taking his opponents down on 23% of his attempts and is able to deflect 37% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Raposo takes 2.65 strikes per min and he is connecting on 1.73 strikes per minute. Nascimento, moreover, is absorbing 2.53 strikes per min and dishes out 3.06 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Gauge Young (-130)

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