NHL Predictions: Stars at Sabres Odds and Betting Picks
by George Monroy - 10/28/2013
The Buffalo Sabres may have just given up on the season and gone into ‘rebuilding-for-next-year’ mode after Sunday’s huge trade that sent the team’s best player and two-time 40-goal scorer Thomas Vanek to the New York Islanders. In return the Sabres will receive forward Matt Moulson, a 2014 first-round pick and a 2015 second-round pick. Moulson is a solid player and already has nine goals on the season. Many NHL experts believe that Buffalo received the better end of the deal. However, there are already rumors that the Sabres will be looking to flip the forward for more draft picks. The 29-year-old Vanek was Buffalo’s co-captain and points leader with four goals and five assists in 13 games worth of action.
The Dallas Stars have been outscored by seven goals in their last three losses and have fallen to the bottom of the Central Division. The Stars only lead the Edmonton Oilers by a point for the dubious distinction of being the worst team in the Western Conference. However, Dallas has reason to be optimistic as a key player returned from injury during last Thursday’s matchup against the Calgary Flames. Goalie Kari Lehtonen returned to the team after missing five straight games and didn’t miss a beat by stopping 65 shots on 67 attempts over two games worth of action. Both the Stars and Sabres will be entering tonight’s matchup coming off of a loss and looking to get a much-needed win. Let’s take a closer look at the Stars versus Sabres game and figure out which side of the bet has the most value to wager on.
Stars at Sabres Betting Story Lines
Buffalo’s season may already be over only 13 games into the year with a horrific 2-10-1 start and only five points earned. The team seems to have given up on the year and is looking to turn assets into future draft picks. The Vanek-for-Moulson swap was not a bad deal for the Sabres talent-wise as the forward is a young and talented player. But the team will now have to spend time integrating him into the offense and building chemistry with the rest of the team. Vanek handled the puck quite a bit for the Sabres, and much of the offense flowed through him, so there will probably be a transition period over the next few games. If Buffalo decides to keep Moulson, there will not be much of a drop off over the long term. However, if they end up flipping him for draft picks, the team will begin to suffer on the offensive end even more than they already have.
The Stars have lost three of their last four games and have not been competitive in any of those matchups. The team lost by three goals when they faced both the Los Angeles Kings and Anaheim Ducks last week, and they are coming off a shootout loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday. The Stars managed to score only one goal during that matchup and were not able to string together any meaningful offense throughout the game. Dallas’ leading scorer Alex Chiasson did not take one shot attempt against the Jets and was extremely passive in 20 minutes worth of action.
The Sabres currently rank 30th in goals scored per game with 1.5, 21st in goals allowed with 2.8 and 29th in power play percentage. The team also allows a whopping 35.7 shot attempts per game and takes only 25.1. Dallas is also bad in that category and gives up five more shot attempts than they take themselves. The Stars currently rank 20th in goals scored with 2.5, 22nd in goals allowed with 3.0 and 23rd in power player percentage.
Stars at Sabres NHL Betting Odds and Key Trends
Dallas enters Monday’s matchup as a -130 moneyline favorite, while the home underdog Sabres opened with +110 moneyline payout, according to BookMaker. The majority of the action from the site is on the Stars to get the victory—only 38 percent of the wagers have come in on the Sabres. The total opened at 5.5 goals, with the “under” being favored at -130. The vast majority of BookMaker’s action, 81 percent, expects the game to stay under. Dallas is 0-4 during their last four road games and has the same record against the Atlantic Division over their last four matchups. Buffalo is 0-7 during their last seven home games and 0-4 against the Western Conference during their last four games. Head-to-head, the Stars are 0-5 during the last five matchups in Buffalo and 1-6 during the last seven meetings overall. The home team is also 9-2 during the last 11 games between the two teams.
NHL Picks: Stars at Sabres Betting Predictions
The free NHL picks section has done quite well over the last 16 games of action and has produced a solid 11-5 picks record. Our $100 bettors made a $680 profit over that span of picking 68 percent of winners. Our analysis has been based on the simple motto of “finding the right situation with the right price”. And for tonight’s Stars versus Sabres matchups, both of those things seem to have lined up perfectly. Dallas may be coming off of a loss, but the team has played much better with the return of their goalie and is receiving a solid price as a -130 moneyline favorite. Buffalo, on the other hand, just traded away one of their offensive center pieces and will probably struggle to score goals over the next few games. Everything in this matchup points to the Stars getting a road victory.
Record: 11-5; Profit: +680
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