by Chris, the Impaler - 10/17/2005
Luckily for us gamblers we live in an age of prop culture. These days almost anything is fair game for the "proposition" meisters - especially if it is on TV under the aegis of "reality television programming." You won't have to expend too much effort finding an offshore gambling parlor that offers extensive "proposition" bets on your favorite program. Whether it is the Apprentice, the Bachelor, Survivor, World Series of Poker, Survivor series or the Amazing Race, if you got an angle bet the house.
Unfortunately, sometimes "unusual betting patterns" force the off-shore parlors to take a prop culture bet off the board as we saw in the most recent edition of Amazing Race: Family. The Linz family all of a sudden garnered massive action so the books "no actioned" all bets on the Amazing Race. Does this mean the Linz family wins? Bet your sweet ass they do. Sorry if I ruined that for you.
For this season's Survivor: Guatemala all proposition bets are in effect and the best time to get the most value for your money is before the merge. Currently, after five episodes, two popular returning Survivors (Stephanie and Bobby Jon) and a plot twist, there are two teams (Yakum and Yaxha) are still battling against one another for reward challenges and avoid going to the dreaded Tribal Council where a tribe member is voted out by their tribe.
However, when reality television and an ex-third string Dallas Cowboys QB collide you have added interest crossing over sports enthusiasts with reality junkies. For those of you who did not lose significant money behind the Hogeboom-led Cowboys back in the day, now is your chance to win some of that back at 7/2 odds if you think he has the moxie to outwit, outlast and outplay the competition in the Mayan ruins of Guatemala.
In 1984 Dallas Cowboys HC Tom Landry made the controversial decision to start his third stringer (a 5th round draft pick in 1980 from Central Michigan) over then fan favorite Danny White. Whether this, or his 14 INTs to 7 TDs ratio, divided the team is unclear, but he eventually got injured and in 1985 got traded. This year he resurfaced in Guatemala denying a bit too much that he was a one time QB of the Dallas Cowboys.
In Survivor, Hogeboom has lied to his team about his former occupation since he mistakenly believes that as an NFL veteran he'd become a target from the younger members of the team who would vote him off, thinking he is rich. Obviously the other members of his tribe are unaware of his under whelming 63.7 QB rating. Despite his failings as an NFL QB, this is Survivor and to date Gary has shown that he is definitely in the running, but his downfall might be that he is eventually exposed and the pissed of tribe members vote him out anyway. But at this point he has alliances not only with his new tribe, but with members of the old tribe before the switch as well. However, ultimately I don't think Gary's strategy will work and he will get voted out before the jury.
Another twist in Survivor: Guatemala (will they never end?) you should look for; expect to see a double tribal council next week. According to information on the episode for week of Oct. 17 - 23 in TV guide, here is what it says:
"Another Survivor episode, another great twist. This week both teams go to Tribal Council and send someone home. But first, there's a rough-and-tumble reward challenge called 'boulder smash' (shows a picture of a large ball like thingy about 7' in diameter with two women on each side from opposing teams pushing against it. Close observation shows that it looks like Lydia and Cindy verses Amy and Danni. The losing tribe has to vote out a member. And in this episode so must the winning tribe. Hey, nobody ever said life on Survivor would be fair!"
According to my sources, there are other surprises lurking in future episodes of Survivor: Guatemala might include a past Survivor contestant making a guest appearance. Can anyone say Rupert? But I am really hoping that the loathsome Judd goes soon. How much of a candy-ass pussy is this guy? He is so annoying that at my peril I have dismissed him from any and all consideration as a serious contender to the crown of Ultimate Survivor.
So who is going to win and when can I collect my money? The best I can tell is by predicting the boot order from my final four. I have Stephanie losing out to Cindy (from The Ohio State University) at spot No. 5 -- good enough if you make it to a final table on the WPT, but only good enough to vote for who gets the million bucks and the title of Ultimate Survivor. I see Cindy, Rafe, Lydia and Danni completing the smelly foursome. Getting stuck on an island with two beautiful women and a mother figure is not a bad deal for the androgynous Rafe.
After years of watching and evaluating Survivor I know the best way to make it to the final two is be the person everyone comes to hate so that another member will take you along with them to the end. The person filling this role I believe will be Stephanie and the other members will work hard to make sure she does not make the final four! Somehow she'll transform from fan favorite to annoying everyone in Guatemala whining about her streak of bad luck. Another thing that Stephanie has going against her is that she is bar none the toughest competitor in the season's edition of Survivor. No one wants to get down to the final four with her so they might all work together to make sure that she does not go too far into the jury pool.
I see Lydia (who nobody really wants to make it to the final two since her spirit and good nature and puritan work ethic make her a joy to have around and deadly to go head-to-head against since the Jury will most likely vote for her) as your true X-factor. She is much tougher than she appears and could quite possibly make it further than fourth. But I can't honestly see her dominating the endurance challenge so I have her as the first to drop out of the final four. Next to fold will be Danni.
The ex-Miss Teen USA from Biloxi, Mississippi has had little face time, which is weird for a beauty queen -- this is just one reason why I think she does well. Oh yeah and that old Survivor bugaboo alliance thing. She has played a great game to date and so far it seems that she has the cunning and ability as well as being a student of the game to make it to the final four. However, when it comes to the endurance challenge we see her succumbing to the strongest two competitors Cindy and the unlikely Rafe who I think is a dead ringer for Woody Allen. And when the final votes are counted I think it will be likely one vote that swings it; Stephanie's as she votes for her old buddy Rafe.
Pick! Eighty percent of Success is showing up (Rafe 7/1).
Our friends at Bodog sports have posted the following odds for Survivor: Guatemala. Gamblers should note that there is a $100 maximum bet on this "prop culture" event.
In our last foray into Survivor betting we advised a play on Tom at 7/1 nailing the winner of Survivor: Palau. We still have a pending bet on Michael Jackson not moving to Germany at -1.25 and unfortunately lost our Big Brother bet as Kaysar got blindsided by his venal housemates, although we were correct that Janelle would come in second.
Let me know what you think at firstname.lastname@example.org