Ferringo Examines Early Line Moves
by Robert Ferringo - 11/13/2007
Since the first weekend in October the early sharp action in college football has been about as dull as an episode of "The Sarah Silverman Show". And that's pretty dull. The strongest early line movements away from the numbers released by the LVSC have posted a paltry 17-20 mark against the spread during that time. Well, after a week off we're back to see if the Monday movements are A) set for a strong finish, B) consistently worth playing against, or C) about as useful of an indicator as that quarter in your pocket.
These are the games that have seen the most significant early movement heading into college football's Week 13:
Penn State at Michigan State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Current: Penn State -3.0.
Apparently people were really impressed with the Nittany Lions pummeling Temple. Not me. Penn State still has Anthony Morrelli at the helm and that guy is a walking disaster on the road. Throw in a Michigan State front line that can be vicious and the fact that the Spartans really did play ticked off after their loss to Michigan and we may have a live dog here. Michigan State is 17-3 ATS in its last home game of the year.
Duke at Notre Dame (Noon p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Open: Notre Dame -7.5.
Current: Notre Dame -5.5.
Every week it's a new low for the Irish. I'm not even talking about losing to Duke, I'm talking about the fact that they are less than a touchdown favorite to one of the worst football programs in college football history. Apparently it is now cool for the general public to bet against the Irish. Either that or folks finally realized how much money could be made playing against them. I don't see this one crossing -6.0 but play the Golden Domers at your own risk.
Missouri at Kansas State (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Open: Missouri -10.0.
Current: Missouri -7.0.
Looks like the sharps are expecting a look-ahead situation with the Tigers, who have undefeated Kansas on deck in a Big 12 elimination game. However, Missouri has to make it out of Manhattan with a win first and they'll be matched up against a Wildcats team that has to be a little ornery after their beatdown at the hands of now-lowly Nebraska last week. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against Mizzou.
Southern Mississippi at Texas-El Paso (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)
Open: Southern Miss -6.0.
Current: Southern Miss -3.0.
This is a Hangover Game for the Eagles, who lost outright to Memphis last week as a 17-point favorite. Southern Miss has dominated that series but has also shown a disturbing trend of failing to cover (1-5 ATS) after their clash with the Tigers. That being said, UTEP is a horrendous that has lost four straight and is 4-16 ATS as a home underdog of less than a touchdown. Play on this game at your own risk.
New York Giants at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
Open: Detroit -1.5.
Current: New York -3.0.
This line movement is so severe that even I don't know what to make of it. Obviously New York is going to get a lot more money coming in on its side because of all of the New York-New Jersey homers and wise guys. And clearly folks are doubting the validity of Detroit's record following their loss to Arizona. However, Detroit's strength (pass offense) plays right into New York's weakness (pass defense) so I would be careful how crazy you go backing Eli Manning on the road.
Miami at Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
We have a strong total movement in this game, as the over-under has crossed through a whole region of key NFL totals. The weather is supposed to be fine and there are no apparent key injuries to sway the line. This is sheer sharp action driving this one. The 'under' is 18-5-3 in Philly's last 26 as a home favorite and 35-17-5 as a favorite. This game will feature Cleo Lemon and does have two prideful defenses. But you have to wonder how far this number can fall before the value slides back to the 'over'.
For more information about Robert's member's picks, check out his Insider Page here.