Top NFL Totals Predictions For Week 5
by Gary Patrick Garry - 10/03/2007
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Total: (Total: 42.5 Courtesy of SportsBetting)
The Chargers, obviously, like to run, with reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson leading the ground game. When you look at the Doc's Sports matchup page, you find that the Broncos defense has allowed an average of 204 yards per game on the ground over their last three, and if the Chargers can run at will, that will set up their passing game and get their offense on a path back to where it was a year ago.
San Diego heard the derision of their fans last week at home as the disgusted faithful chanted MARTY, MARTY toward the end of their embarrassing home loss. They surrendered 30 points in that game and the Chargers have, in fact, surrendered 30 points or more in each of their last three games.
In two road games this year, the Chargers have allowed an average of 412 yards of total offense, so the Broncos, who are averaging 382.5 yards per game, should be able to move the ball. Eight of Denver's last nine games have eclipsed the total, including seven straight at home dating back to Oct. 29 of last year.
Both teams are frustrated by their respective performances a week ago. I look for the offenses to come out focused and crisp, ready to put some points on the board. I like this game over the total.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 36 (Courtesy of 5 Dimes)
It has been extremely difficult for the Kansas City Chiefs to run the football of late. These are the total rushing yards that Larry Johnson and the Chiefs have managed over their last five games: 44, 72, 70, 50, and last week they tripped and actually broke triple digits with 126. Kansas City is averaging just 14 points per game.
To handicap winning NFL totals you have to project a scenario that the statistics suggest. The ball in the sport of football is shaped kind of funny, and it bounces unpredictably at times as we all know, but you have to model the probabilities if you're going to make an informed selection.
Jack Del Rio has tried to build Jacksonville around its defense. The Jax "D" has allowed a little over 11 points per game so far this season, and opposing offenses are managing 287.7 yards per contest them against them, and just 150.7 of them are coming through the air. So if they are going to be successful offensively against the Jaguars, the Chiefs are going to have to be able to do something that they haven't been very good at doing, and that is establishing the run.
Bookmaker has the total for this game at 35.5, while betED, BetUs, and 5Dimes all have the total for the game posted at 36 as of this writing. Four of the last five Chiefs games have stayed under the total, and three of those four times they have stayed under by double digits.
I look for a defensive struggle here in spite of the low number. I like to look at the line and ask myself what I am being enticed to do. In this case the number in the mid-thirties makes you think over. But the game model based on the stats points toward the under, and that is my selection in this spot.