Top NFL Totals Predictions For Week 7
by Gary Patrick Garry - 10/17/2007
Arizona at Washington
The quarterback controversy surrounding the Cardinals ended when Matt Leinart went on the shelf with a broken collarbone suffered two weeks ago when he was sacked by Will Witherspoon of the Rams. Kurt Warner inherited the job all to himself, and many felt that Arizona would be a better team with the two-time NFL MVP at the helm. Warner, however, lasted less than a quarter before injuring his left hand last week against Carolina. So the Cardinals glut has turned to a paucity in two short weeks as Tim Rattay, signed when Leinart went down, takes over as the starting quarterback and the Cardinals scramble to find a back-up.
The Redskins lost at Green Bay, 17-14, last week, and that was their fifth consecutive game under the total. They are third in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 13.8 points per game, and they are sixth in rushing defense, allowing 79.6 yards per contest. Arizona is 17th in the league in rushing offense, gaining 106.7 yards per game.
Arizona is 3-3 for the over. Their defense is allowing 22.7 ppg. They are averaging 21.3 points per game offensively, but with Rattay last week they managed just 10.
The Redskins defense is one of the league's best, and they are especially adept at stopping the run. Nobody will mistake Tim Rattay for Dan Marino as a passer, so the Cardinals will enter this game knowing that they will need to play a good defensive football game if they are going to stand a chance against Washington.
My selection is Under 36.5
St. Louis at Seattle Total: 40
The St. Louis Rams visit Seattle on Sunday, and I'm going to cut right to the chase here: the Rams are averaging 4.3 ppg in their three road games to date. They have played five of their six games this season under the total.
Seattle is 2-4 over, and their once-vaunted ground game has failed to reach triple digits in three consecutive outings and four of five (the one time they did rush for 100 yards they gained 102). The Seattle offense is averaging 13.3 ppg in their last three starts and 17.3 ppg overall.
The way that New Orleans moved the ball in the first half last Sunday night in Seattle will motivate the Seahawks' defense to play with full intensity this week against the Rams. Mike Holmgren was embarrassed in front of a national television audience and I expect him to have his charges ready to redeem themselves this week
I don't want to oversimplify things, but then again, I don't want to over-complicate them either. You average 4.3 ppg on the road, I bet your road games under the total.
The pick is Under 40.
New England at Miami
The Patriots offense is averaging 38.3 points per game overall, and 40 ppg in their three road games to date. Five of their six games have soared over the total, and they visit a Miami team on Sunday that is allowing its opponents 30.3 ppg. The Dolphins are 4-2 over and both of their home games have eclipsed the total. They have allowed 35 points to Oakland, 41 to Cleveland, and 31 to the Jets, who have scored a total of 74 points in their other five games combined.
Cleo Lemon played well at QB for Miami in last week's 41-31 loss at Cleveland. The Dolphins are averaging 22.3 ppg over their last three, and the way that New England is playing offense and Miami is playing defense, they may not need to score much for this game to go over the total.
I like this game Over 51.