NFL Totals Betting: Week 3 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 9/21/2011
The ‘over’ has clearly been the best play so far through the first two weeks on the NFL regular season. In the season openers, 12 of the 16 games went ‘over’ the total line. Last week was almost has high with 11 of 16 games going ‘over’ the total. This equates to 71.9 percent of the games so far exceeding the total line.
The odds makers will continue to adjust the lines to try and balance things out, but there is still value to be found in the numbers as the following are this week’s best bets for the current ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Embattled quarterback Kyle Orton staved off the wolves for at least one more week with a 195 yards passing and two touchdowns in Denver’s 24-22 victory over Cincinnati. The Broncos are fighting through a slew of injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but have still managed to average 22 points a game.
Tennessee’s new signal caller Matt Hasselbeck looked much more comfortable running the offense last week in a shocking 26-13 upset of Baltimore. He ended up throwing for 358 yards and one touchdown against the Ravens vaunted defense.
The total line opened at 41 and has slid up to 42, sapping a bit of value out of the ‘over’ play. However, the total has gone ’over’ in nine of Denver’s last 12 road games and in nine of Tennessee’s last 12 home games. The total has also gone ‘over’ in the last four games between the two.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Right now it appears that Kansas City’s 10-6 record and AFC West title in 2010 was just a mirage, but it is still a bit early to write this team off. What you can write off is the Chiefs’ running game after losing Jamaal Charles for the season. The pressure is now on Matt Cassel to move this team through the air to generate some wins. He will have to continue to try and do it without wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin, who remains out of the lineup with a wrist injury.
San Diego did a good job moving the ball up and down the field against New England, but continually shot itself in the foot in the Red Zone. The normally potent Charger offense is off to another slow start, with an average of just 22 points in its first two games. Not helping matters, San Diego has three wide receivers listed as questionable for this game, including Malcom Floyd.
The line has held fairly steady for this game after opening at 44.5 points. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the Chiefs last five games following an ATS loss and in the last five games in which the Chargers were a home favorite. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last seven meetings between the two teams in San Diego.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Super Bowl champs are off to a good start with wins over New Orleans and Carolina, but the defense has been a bit suspect; giving up 57 total points and an average of 476 total yards a game. The loss of safety Nick Collins for the season will not help, but the Packers have been down this road before.
Chicago is still trying to figure out its identity after an impressive 30-12 victory over Atlanta on opening day that was followed up with an ugly 30-13 loss to New Orleans last week. One thing that remains true to form is that Bears’ quarterback Jay Cutler continues to take a beating week in and week out.
The line opened at 46 and has dipped a half-point since then, but the value remains in a projected low-scoring affair. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the Packers last seven games as a road favorite and in five of the Bears last seven games against the NFC North. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last seven games in this series, including the last four at Soldier Field.
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