NFL Totals Betting: Week 17 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/25/2012
Last week in the NFL, seven games went “over” the total, eight stayed “under” and there was one “push”. This means that over the past 10 weeks the oddsmakers have been able to keep the results on the NFL total line just about dead even with an overall record of 71-74-4. I went even across the board with my top three picks last week at 1-1-1 to take my year-to-date record to 24-19-2. With just one more week to sharpen my edge for the playoffs, I dug deep into this Sunday’s matchups in an effort to unearth the value in the total line.
Each week of the NFL season, my job is to discover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line in Sunday’s schedule of games. The following are my top three NFL picks for Week 17 with lines provided by 5Dimes.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 41
The Jets will once again turn to quarterback Greg McElroy to try and ignite an offense that has not scored more than 19 points in seven of its last eight games. Overall, New York is ranked 30th in the NFL in total yards and 28th in scoring with an average of 18.1 points a game. Conversely, its defense has held opponents to 14 or less points in three of its last four games.
Buffalo has had its own problems finding the end zone down the stretch with a total of 39 points in its last three games. The Bills are averaging 21.1 points a game on the year while giving up a total of 28.4 points on defense. They did give up 48 to the Jets they first time they met this season, but that was way back on opening weekend.
Game Betting Trends
The total line opened at 41 points and has held steady throughout the week. Weather could be a slight factor in Sunday’s game with temperatures in the 20s, which could help to keep the scoring down. Past trends also favor a low-scoring game with the total staying under in three of the last five meetings in Buffalo, but I am counting on current form keeping both teams out of the end zone this Sunday afternoon.
Game Prediction: UNDER 41
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 46.5
The Eagles have had major issues in the red zone this season whether they had Michael Vick or Nick Foles under center. Foles is out with a broken hand, so it will be up to Vick to step back into the starting role on Sunday. As a team, Philadelphia is ranked 27th in the NFL in scoring with just 18.2 points a game. It has scored 24 points or more in just one game this season.
New York has been outscored 67-14 in its last two games, including a stunning 34-0 whitewash on the road against Atlanta. The Giants have done a much better job at putting points on the board when playing at home, but they have only eclipsed their 25.8 season average twice in their last seven games.
Game Betting Trends
The total opened at 47 and has dipped slightly to 46.5 on 5Dimes latest board, but it is still high enough for me. The weather is expected to seasonable at MetLife Stadium this Sunday, so it should not be a factor in this matchup. Earlier this season, Philadelphia grinded out a 19-17 victory that stayed well under the 46-point line. The total has now stayed under in four of the last five meetings and in 11 of the last 14 games played in New Jersey. Look for a similar result this Sunday given the offensive woes of both these teams.
Game Prediction: UNDER 46.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (4:25 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 46.5
Green Bay is still in line for a first-round bye with a win, so it will not be calling off the dogs in this NFC North matchup. The Packers have been red hot down the stretch with nine victories in their last 10 games. Last Sunday, Aaron Rodgers and Co. posted 55 points on Tennessee, and the offense is currently ranked seventh in the NFL in scoring with an average of 26.6 points a game.
The Vikings need a win on Sunday to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, so they too should come out playing at a high level in front of the hometown crowd. They are averaging 22.8 points a game but have scored a combined 59 points on the road in their last two games. Look for another big day from running back Adrian Peterson, who is still in pursuit of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record.
Game Betting Trends
The total line opened at 46.5 and remains at that number on 5Dimes most current board. The total stayed under a 47-point closing line the first time they met this season. However, looking back at the recent trends in this series, it has gone over in seven of the last nine meetings overall and in nine of the last 12 meetings in Minnesota.
Game Prediction: OVER 46.5
YTD Record: 24-19-2
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