Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: Ohio Bobcats Week 7
by Aaron Smith - 10/10/2012
The regular season has reached the midpoint for the Ohio Bobcats. We’re back with the sixth edition of the mid-major betting report. Ohio is off to a 6-0 start, but they still haven’t quite breached the Top 25. If this team can keep winning, they might be a part of the BCS picture at the end of the year. I’m following players on Twitter, reading reports from Ohio beat writers, and reading transcripts from press conferences to become an expert on this Ohio Bobcats team. The goal of this report is to show how specialization is a profitable sports betting strategy.
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Last year’s mid-major betting report, which followed the Rice Owls, made $100 unit bettors $1,280 in profit based on a record of 7-2-1. At the end of each weekly article this season, I will make a selection for that weekend’s Ohio Bobcats matchup. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick, which should help readers follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks.
The Ohio Bobcats went off as 14.5-point favorites in last week’s game against Buffalo, but they had to battle from behind to pick up the victory. Buffalo jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead, but Daz’mond Patterson’s 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown brought the Bobcats back to within seven before the end of the quarter. Ohio was able to pull ahead thanks to recovering three fumbles lost by the Bulls. The Bobcats were plus-two in the turnover margin in this game. Ohio pulled out to a 38-24 lead before Buffalo scored a touchdown with eight seconds left to make the final score 38-31 in favor of the Bobcats.
Despite the fact that the Bobcats came away with the win, the team has to be concerned with the difficulty they had stopping the Bulls offense. Buffalo actually outgained Ohio by a total of 501 yards to 333. Buffalo was without star running back Branden Oliver, but the Bulls still rolled up 313 rushing yards in this game. The Bobcats secondary has looked bad against the pass sometimes this year, but this is the first game Ohio’s front seven has been dominated. Last week’s selection was a 2-Unit selection on “over” 56.5 points. With a final of 38-31, the play turned out to be a comfortable winner.
Notes of Interest
-Alex Marchesci, of WOUB Sports in Athens, wrote this week about a new program implemented before the season that is paying dividends for the Bobcats. Coach Solich started what he calls a “unity council” that has 16 to 18 members on it. The goal of the unity council is to encourage leadership in all classes. Solich said, “Those guys that are on the unity council are expected to do all the right things. If not, then you shouldn’t be on the unity council.” This raises expectations of leadership for the entire team, and the coaching staff believes it is a program that helps the team keep playing well even when key players go down with an injury. A higher level of accountability is always a good thing for collegiate athletes.
--Daz Patterson was named MAC East Special Teams Player of the Week. At his press conference this week, Solich spoke about Patterson’s impact on the team. He said, “He’s (Patterson) got skills. He’s got excellent quickness. He’s got good hands. He’s got good toughness. All that comes back to him having a chance to be a really good back as he continues to develop in the system.” Solich spoke about Patterson not allowing his height and size to be a detriment to him. Patterson has been a major contributor for the Bobcats, despite being a true freshman.
-Terry Bowden leads a new-look Akron team into Athens this Saturday. Bowden has turned the Zips offense into a fast-pace offense that looks to take advantage of tired bodies on the defense. Ohio’s secondary is really beat up right now, so that has to be a concern for the Bobcats coaching staff.
--Akron is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record.
--Akron is 0-4 ATS in their last four games against Ohio.
--Ohio is 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record.
-The over is 6-1 in Akron’s last seven games overall.
Akron vs. Ohio College Football Odds
Bookmaker opened the Ohio Bobcats as a 19.5-point home favorite in this one on Sunday night. The line has edged toward the home team here, and most books now have the Bobcats favored by 20.5. The posted total opened at 67 points and it has stayed steady at that level thus far.
Akron vs. Ohio College Football Picks
This weekend’s game will be homecoming for the Bobcats. Akron comes into this one 1-5 on the year, but they have been able to put up points in a big way. The Zips are averaging 33.8 points per contest. Akron averages 340 passing yards per game, and that could definitely be a problem for Ohio’s short-handed secondary. Still, the Zips defense shouldn’t be able to do much at all about Ohio’s well-balanced offensive attack. Akron is allowing 38.3 points per game so far this year.
With both offenses having the upper hand, I feel like the over is the best value in this game. I was ready to make a bigger play on this one, but the oddsmakers set the total very high. Since the total is at 67 points, I recommend a 1-Unit play on over 67 points. The Bobcats have next week off, so the next mid-major betting report will be in two weeks.
Pick: #121- Take Akron/Ohio over 67 for 1 Unit (Saturday, 2 p.m. EST)
Season Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses= +1.8 Units ($180 Profit)
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