Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: Ohio Bobcats Week 10
by Aaron Smith - 10/30/2012
Ohio’s hopes for an undefeated regular season were dashed last weekend in a heartbreaking way. The Bobcats dropped a 23-20 contest against the Miami Redhawks. The Bobcats were 7-0 heading into the game, and they had just gotten into the Top 25 for the first time in school history. Why is the focus directly on the Ohio Bobcats here? All year I’m following the Ohio Bobcats for the mid-major betting report. I’m reading transcripts from press conferences, keeping up to date with beat writers, and doing everything necessary to become an expert on this Ohio Bobcats team. The goal of this weekly report is to show how specialization is a profitable sports betting strategy.
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Last year’s mid-major betting report, which followed the Rice Owls, made $100-per-unit bettors $1,280 in profit based on a record of 7-2-1. At the end of each weekly article this season, I will make a prediction for that week’s Ohio Bobcats game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick, which should help readers follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks.
Last week’s loss isn’t one that will be forgotten anytime soon by Ohio Bobcats football fans. The Bobcats had the ball at the Redhawks seven-yard line with nine seconds remaining and trailing by three points. The Bobcats had no timeouts remaining, but they opted to go for a game-winning touchdown. Tyler Tettleton was sacked and time ran out on the Bobcats as the Redhawks celebrated their huge upset. It was about as tough of a loss as you will ever see in college football.
Ohio didn’t turn the football over, and they forced one turnover from the Redhawks. The Bobcats did allow six sacks in last week’s game, and they had given up only five sacks all year prior to last weekend. The running game averaged just 3.8 yards per carry for Ohio, which had to be a disappointment since they were going up against a weak defensive front. The secondary continued to be a problem for Ohio. Miami threw for 311 yards in the win. Last week’s selection was on the “over,” and that turned out to be a loser. Both teams moved the ball well (nearly 900 combined yards of total offense), but neither team did a good job finishing drives.
Notes of Interest
--The final play of last week’s loss at Miami will be questioned for years to come. Coach Solich decided to gamble and try to win the game rather than kick the field goal for the tie. Since there were nine seconds left in the game, it is understandable that he chose to give it a try. The part that is confusing for most is what transpired on the last play. Tettleton took a sack, which ended the team’s chances of even tying the game. After the game, Tettleton said he “forgot” Ohio was out of timeouts and that it was totally his fault. It was also reported after the game that the coaching staff hadn’t reminded Tettleton of the situation and that he needed to throw the ball away if nothing was open. Clearly this was a major mistake, but it’s hard to put too much blame on either Tettleton or Solich. This Ohio Bobcats team would never be in the position they are in right now without those two leading the way.
-In his weekly press conference, Solich was asked if Saturday’s loss felt like more than one loss. He responded, “No, a single loss is as big as it gets, and so it was that.” He also mentioned that the team has some real excitement about getting back on the field this Thursday night. After a tough loss like last week, you have to think that the early game this week is a good thing for the Bobcats.
--The new CBS Sports conference power rankings has the Mid-American Conference ranked fifth out of the all conferences in FBS football. The MAC was ranked above both the Big East and the ACC. Interestingly, the MAC is currently second in the FBS with six teams already garnering bowl eligibility.
--Ohio is 0-6 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record.
-Eastern Michigan is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
--Eastern Michigan is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with Ohio.
--The over is 5-2 in Eastern Michigan’s last seven games.
-The “under” is 8-3 in the Bobcats last 11 games.
Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio College Football Odds
According to 5Dimes, the line on this game opened at Ohio -17. The Bobcats received some early money, but books have received a lot of action on Eastern Michigan in the last day or so. Ohio is now set as a 16-point favorite in this game. The posted total opened at 56.5 points and it has stayed steady.
Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio College Football Odds
How will Ohio respond to last week’s big loss? That really is the question in this one. I have little doubt that the Bobcats can take it to the Eagles if they are focused. Even before last week’s loss, Ohio hadn’t been playing very well. The loss could either make the team even more focused or turn things south for the program. Solich has done a great job with this team, and I tend to think they come out ready to play this Thursday night.
Ohio’s weakness at this point is in the secondary, and Eastern Michigan doesn’t have the passing attack to take advantage of that weakness. On the other side, Eastern Michigan ranks dead last in the nation in rushing defense. Look for Ohio to pound the football in a big way this week. I like Ohio to win this one comfortably. My selection for this week is a two-unit play on Ohio -16.
Pick: #304 - Take Ohio -16 for 2 Units (Thursday, 6 p.m. EST)
Season Results: 3 Wins 4 Losses= -2.6 Units ($260 Loss)
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