PGA Tour Picks: RBC Heritage Betting Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 4/17/2013
I would have to rank last week's Masters as among the five most exciting/unusual I have ever watched. Tiger Woods didn't win -- nor did I expect him to -- but once again stole the spotlight from the rest of the field with an illegal drop on No. 15 Friday. It was an incredibly unfortunate break that his approach hit the pin and ricocheted into the water, but there's still no excuse for Tiger not knowing the rules. Is it stupid a rules official on hand didn't tell him he couldn't then drop from about two yards back from his original spot? Yes. Is it 100 percent ridiculous that TV viewers can call in and get players penalized? I couldn't hate that more, and it must change. It's not fair to Tiger that his every shot is on camera.
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Purely as a golf fan, I was glad to see Adam Scott win the green jacket and his first major, because he so much deserved last year's British Open before going Jan van de Velde down the stretch and handing the Claret Jug to Ernie Els. I didn't address Scott, the first Aussie to win the Masters, at all last week. I did hit on the winner not coming from Sunday's final pairing, which was a nice +200. Also hit on a hole-in-one in the tournament at -115 (Jamie Donaldson at No. 6). I badly missed on Phil Mickelson to win and, of course, finish in the Top 10. Lefty never broke 70 and was T54. I did hit on Top 10s for Tiger (-350) and Lee Westwood (+200). Head-to-head, I also was correct on Tiger (-185) over Rory McIlroy, Westwood (-120) over Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar (-115) over Bubba Watson.
So all in all, a pretty good tournament.
This week, a watered-down field -- as is always the case after a major -- heads a bit north up the East Coast for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head, a very popular and family-friendly stop for players. You won't see most of the big names again until the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte in two weeks. Three of the world's Top 10 and 10 of the Top 25 are playing at Hilton Head as are the winners of this event the past seven years. Harbour Town has very narrow, tree-lined fairways and some of the smallest greens on Tour. Thus, look for low putt-per-round totals for the winner. Six of the last seven champions have taken less than 104 putts for the week, or an average of 26 per round. The par 71 is one of the shortest tracks on Tour at 7,101 yards.
Sweden's Carl Pettersson won last year, taking a one-stroke lead into the final round and shooting a 2-under 69 to beat runner-up Zach Johnson by five shots. He's looking to become the fourth repeat champion. The last was Boo Weekley in 2007-08 for his only two career Tour wins.
PGA Tour Golf Odds: RBC Heritage Favorites
Brandt Snedeker is the 14/1 favorite at Bovada. He was tied for the third-round lead last week with Angel Cabrera but shot a final-round 75 to finish T6. Snedeker dominated the West Coast start to the season but had struggled before last week since coming back from a rib injury. He won at Hilton Head two years ago and was T17 in 2012.
Jim Furyk, Luke Donald and Kuchar are all 16/1. This could be the course where Furyk wins for the first time in nearly three years. He has six Top-10 finishes in 12 trips and won in 2010. He was T8 a year ago.
Donald had two runner-ups and a third from 2009-2011 at this event before a T37 last year. He coughed up the No. 1 ranking to McIlroy here last year. Kuchar hasn't missed a cut all year and was T8 last week. He has only one Top 10 here in the past six years.
The Jasons, Day and Dufner, round out the favorites at 25/1. Day blew a second chance to win the Masters last week with closing back-to-back bogeys to finish third. I'm not sure where his head will be. His best finish in three RBC Heritages was T9 two years ago. Dufner was T20 last week and looking for his first Top 10 in 2013. He has no Top-10 finishes in five trips to Hilton Head.
PGA Tour Picks: RBC Heritage Betting Predictions
On the yes-only Top-10 props, I like Furyk (+125), Snedeker (+115), Donald (+125) and Weekley (+250). Americans have mostly dominated this event, so take that as the winning nationality at -275. I also like a playoff at +240 as this tournament has gone to one in two of the past three years. Head-to-head, take Dufner (-115) over Day (-115), Johnson (-120) over Bo Van Pelt (-110) and Furyk (-115) over Kuchar (-115).
I thought long and hard about taking Weekley at 33/1 to win. He's finally healthy again, finished T6 here last year and was a runner-up back in March in the Tampa Bay event. But he's too unpredictable. I also think Stewart Cink (50/1) has a shot this week. He's a two-time winner at this event and was in contention in Houston the week before the Masters (where he was a solid T25).
But I think Donald wins on the PGA Tour for the first time since last March. He rarely plays well at the Masters, so he might be encouraged by last week's T25. Plus, he has that strong track record here. I still would take an American as the winning nationality as mentioned above because most of the top players here are from the USA (really Donald is too at this point), and you can cover a potential loss on Donald. However, he has made more money at this tournament than anyone else who hasn't won. He's due.
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