PGA Tour Picks: Wyndham Championship Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/14/2013
Yep, I'm feeling pretty good about my golf prognostication right now. For the first time in the nearly two years I've been writing weekly golf columns here at Doc's, I have not only picked my first major winner but also been correct back-to-back weeks. This means I almost assuredly jinxed myself for this week's Wyndham Championship.
But first, back to last week's PGA Championship at Oak Hill. It was sad to see Jim Furyk blow another chance at a major -- he's stuck on one and could have five at this point -- but great to see Jason Dufner win his first and put the memories of a blown 2011 PGA Championship behind him. It was also nice to see his wife afterward -- wow, that guy really outkicked his coverage! By all accounts, Dufner is a great guy, however. Dufner paid out at 35/1, and I don't expect him to do much the rest of the year simply due to mental exhaustion. He's been making all the media rounds, etc. He's not playing this week.
In a super classy move, Keegan Bradley, who was the beneficiary of Dufner's meltdown at the 2011 PGA, was on his way to the airport on Sunday but turned around when it became clear that Dufner would win. He wanted to be on hand to congratulate his friend. Dufner took a huge jump in the FedEx Cup standings, from 62 to 14. That's relevant starting in one week (more on that in a second).
I had a really nice tournament all around. I also hit on Adam Scott (+150), Dustin Johnson (+300) and Zach Johnson (+400) for a Top-10 finish. Missed on Tiger Woods as he and Phil Mickelson were never a factor. Nailed the field winning at -162 against the six "big guns." Also was accurate on Scott (-115) over Mickelson (-115) and Bill Haas (-120) over Martin Kaymer (-110).
So now Tiger's push to catch Jack Nicklaus' record haul of 18 majors waits another year -- for what it's worth, Woods is an opening favorite for the 2014 Masters and next year's majors schedule suits up really well for him in terms of success at past courses.
So this week it's the Wyndham at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C. (site of Sam Snead's 82nd and final career win.) It's the final tournament before the FedEx Cup playoffs, so a lot of big names are taking the week off. Players must be in the Top 125 in points to advance to the playoffs. Every player between 83rd and 125th on the points list is playing this week, but only five of the Top 20 are. Steven Bowditch is the bubble guy at 125, with Peter Hanson at 126. Former FedEx Cup champ Vijay Singh needs a good result this week to move on as he's No. 141. Davis Love is No. 160. There's usually at least one player from outside the Top 125 who plays his way in at the Wyndham. Last year it was Heath Slocum.
Last year, Sergio Garcia won for the first time in the U.S. in nearly four years, with the tournament spilling over into Monday. The previous three winners of this event were first-time Tour victors. Sergio will be paired with Brandt Snedeker and Webb Simpson the first two days -- they each got their first career win at this event.
PGA Tour Golf Odds: Wyndham Championship Favorites
Simpson is the 12/1 favorite at Bovada. He was solid last week with a T25 at Oak Hill -- tied the course record at the time with a second-round 64 -- and followed his 2011 win at this tournament with a T22 in 2012. Simpson is looking for his first win since the 2012 U.S. Open.
Snedeker is 14/1, with his win here coming in 2007, but not at Sedgefield (he was T5 there two years later). Snedeker is one of just a few multiple-time winners this year and just took the Canadian Open a few weeks ago (thanks in part to Hunter Mahan).
Haas, Zach Johnson (both 16/1) and Sergio (18/1) round out the favorites. Haas played collegiately in nearby Wake Forest and was T7 here a year ago. Other than a missed cut at the British Open, he's been playing tremendous golf in his past six events, including a win the AT&T National. Johnson is also red hot with four straight Top-8 finishes this year. He skipped this tournament in 2012.
PGA Tour Picks: Wyndham Championship Predictions for Betting
You have to like an American as the winning nationality at -300 as most of the top Europeans are not teeing it up. In fact, rest of the world at +500 is ahead of a European at +600 (Australasian the other option at +2000).
I do like Simpson (+110) and Johnson (+110) for Top-10 finishes. I'm not thrilled with the other options. Since it's a pretty evenly-matched field, take one stroke as the margin of victory at +275. I like Haas (-110) over Sergio, Johnson (-110) over Snedeker (-120) and Paul Casey (-115) over David Toms (-115).
If there was a prop on the Top-5 favorites vs. the field, I might take that, but I'm leaning toward South African Tim Clark as great value to win at 50/1. He has not played well in 2013 but went to NC State and was runner-up at this tournament last year and T6 in 2008. It appears the course suits him.
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