Weekly Top Props Odds and Predictions - US Open
by Dave Schwab - 6/11/2013
The US Open is not just golf’s second major of the season; it is the toughest test of the year. The USGA is the governing body of this tournament, and its goal with the setup of the course is to make it a true test of par, which, in turn, makes this a grueling test of golf.
This year’s event is at Merion Golf Club, which is just outside Philadelphia. Merion had been a regular stop for the US Open years ago. And after being retooled to handle the length of today’s players, it is finally back in the rotation. At a little less than 7,000 yards, it will still be the shortest US Open course in recent memory but a challenging track nonetheless. The following is a look at some of the more interesting prop bets for this event as provided by Bovada.
It is no big surprise that Tiger Woods has been opened as the odds-on favorite to win this week at 9/2. However, given the fact that he has not won a Major since capturing this title in 2008, some of the value in his odds is lost. A better play would be an even-money bet that he finishes in the Top 5.
The money line on Rory McIlroy finishing in the Top 5 is a real value at +400 if you think he will bring his A-game this week. He won this event in 2011. However, his erratic performance this season tends to drain much of the value from this play.
Last year’s US Open Champion was Webb Simpson. He has been opened at 40/1 to successfully defend his title. The last time a player won back-to-back US Open titles was Curtis Strange in 1988 and 1989. The money line on Simpson to finish in the Top 5 is +800, but he might be a player to avoid altogether given that he is currently ranked just 18th on the PGA money list this year.
Phil Mickelson has never won a US Open but has come painfully close over the course of his career. He has been opened as the second-favorite at 16/1 to break through with a win, but the better value could be on his +400 odds to finish in the Top 5. The best value would be a bet on a Top-10 finish at +165, which is still a nice return for a player of his caliber.
US Open Playoff
If two or more players end the final round tied, the US Open format for a playoff is a full 18-hole round the following day. The odds that this year’s tournament ends in a tie are +240 for “yes” and -333 for “no”. Looking back at the past results, you find that from 1984 until 1991 the US Open ended in a tie four times over a span of eight years. Before you run out and make a play on the yes, be sure to keep in mind that since then there have only been three playoffs.
Big Guns vs. the Field
Given the shorter length of Merion, there is a prop bet pairing the Big Guns (Adam Scott, Graeme McDowell, Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods) against the rest of the field. The money line for one of the Big Guns to win the US Open is -250, and the money line for the field is +175.
The Big Guns is definitely a great group of golfers to bet on, especially when you consider that someone in this fivesome has won this tournament in three of the past five years. There are still a number of quality golfers left in the field, including Justin Rose at 22/1, Brandt Snedeker, Charl Schwartzel and Lee Westwood at 28/1 and Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia at 33/1. However, the best play is to take the risk on the higher money line with a small bet on the Big Guns.
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