NHL Hockey Odds and Picks: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 3/9/2015
I suppose it's easy to say right now, but I always thought the Nashville Predators were a bit overrated. A terrific defensive team, for sure, led by perhaps the NHL's best goalie in Pekka Rinne. A team that could win a round or two in the playoffs, yep. But the league's best? I just didn't see enough offense.
The Predators took a season-high six-game losing streak into Monday's matchup at Arizona, which they should win. The Preds no longer lead the NHL in points, and their margin over second-place St. Louis in the division is only two points. Nashville badly needs home-ice advantage in the playoffs because it has been one of the league's top teams there but just a couple of games over .500 on the road.
The Preds are 1-for-15 on the power play during the losing streak and 2-for-30 over the past 10 contests (team ranks just 24th with the man-advantage on the season). Forward James Neal, who's in a three-way tie for first on the team with 21 goals, has now gone a season-high nine games without a point. He's minus-six during that stretch. The losing streak comes less than three weeks after the team had compiled a season-best six-game winning run. Nashville has given up the first goal in each of the past 11 games, and you simply aren't going to win in the playoffs doing that.
The streak better end Monday or it might hit double-digits with a three-game swing through California starting Thursday. The skid has seen Nashville skid down Bovada's futures odds. The Predators are now sixth on the Stanley Cup odds at 12/1 (with Minnesota) and third to win the West at 5/1.
Injury Report
The Colorado Avalanche were the Central Division champions last year and fully expected to contend in the Western Conference this season with a lot of young talent. However, the Avs have been one of the league's disappointments and now have lost one of those young stars in Nathan MacKinnon. He will miss the rest of the season with a broken foot. MacKinnon, the No. 1 overall pick in 2013 who is still just 19, originally hurt his foot when he blocked a shot in a Feb. 22 game against the Lightning -- in which MacKinnon had his first NHL hat trick -- but X-rays were negative. So MacKinnon kept playing. However, he took another shot off his foot last week in a win over Pittsburgh. This time an MRI showed a fracture. MacKinnon had 14 goals and 24 assists.
The Jets are trying to hang onto a wild-card spot in the West, but they will have to do so without All-Star defenseman Dustin Byfuglien for the next 2-4 weeks because of an upper-body injury suffered Thursday. His 15 goals are tied for fourth among NHL defensemen. He also has 42 points and a plus-six rating in 65 games.
David Clarkson, recently acquired from Columbus from Toronto, is going to likely miss the rest of the season with a torn oblique muscle. He had 14 penalty minutes in three games with the Jackets but didn't score. He finished with 15 points and 106 penalty minutes overall this season. Before he went down, Columbus had lost 399 man games to injury this season, by far more than any other team. No wonder the team is near the bottom of the East.
Dallas star Tyler Seguin, who might have won the NHL scoring title had he not gotten hurt, returned ahead of schedule on Saturday in Tampa Bay. Seguin suffered a knee injury on Feb. 13 thanks to a low hit by Florida defenseman Dmitry Kulikov, who was suspended four games by the NHL for the play. Seguin originally was given a timetable of 4-6 weeks. He had two goals against the Lightning, but it's too late to save Dallas. Seguin has 31 goals and 30 assists in 56 games.
Boston's Brett Connolly, recently acquired from Tampa Bay, could miss the rest of the season with a right finger fracture. He was hurt in practice on Wednesday, just two days after coming over from the Lightning. Boston gave up two second-round picks for Connolly, the No.6 overall pick in 2010. He didn't play a game with the Bruins and had 12 goals with Tampa.
This Week's Games to Watch
NY Rangers at NY Islanders, Tuesday: Barring a playoff matchup, this game is easily the biggest of the week because it's the Rangers' last visit to the old Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Long Island, the final meeting between the rivals in the regular season and potentially with first place in the Metropolitan Division on the line. Of course the Islanders will move to Brooklyn's Barclays Center next season. It's the second of a back-to-back for the Isles as they were in Toronto on Monday. Coach Jack Capuano went with backup goalie Michal Neuvirth to save No. 1 Jarsolav Halak for Tuesday's showdown. The Isles are 3-1 vs. the Blueshirts this season. The Islanders opened as -120 favorites on BookMaker.
Tampa Bay at Montreal, Tuesday: Another excellent matchup and with first place on the line in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning, the NHL's highest-scoring team, enter on a three-game winning streak, albeit all at home against lousy teams Buffalo, Toronto and Dallas. Tampa is tied for the fewest regulation home losses in the NHL but just 15-14-5 on the road. The Habs, who lead the league in goals-against at 2.2 per game, ended a three-game losing streak and closed out a four-game road trip with a 2-0 win in Arizona on Saturday. The Bolts have really had Montreal's number, winning 7-1 at home very early in the season and 4-2 also in Tampa on Jan. 6. The Canadiens opened as -140 favorites.
Chicago at San Jose, Saturday: The Blackhawks presumably will face off against their former Stanley Cup-winning goaltender in Antti Niemi. He was terrific in the 2010 playoffs, going 16-6 with a 2.63 GAA and .910 save percentage. The Sharks need all the points they can get as they currently are out of the playoff chase. The Blackhawks remain Bovada Stanley Cup favorites, but it appears as if Patrick Kane's injury is starting to show. The Hawks have been held to two goals or fewer in three of their past four games (shut out twice). This is the last meeting of the season between the teams, with each winning a home game.
Boston at Pittsburgh, Saturday: Before the season, I thought this would probably be your Eastern Conference Finals. Maybe it still will, but the Bruins have been pretty disappointing and hold down the East's final wild-card spot over Florida by only four points. The B's are playing better, winning five of seven and one of those defeats was in a shootout. Pittsburgh ended a four-game West Coast road trip Monday night in San Jose. Boston and Pittsburgh have split 3-2 overtime decisions this season, each winning on the road.
Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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