The CFL heads into Week 16 of the regular season, and it has pretty much been Calgary and the rest of the league since opening day. The Stampeders come into this week's game against Toronto with a straight up record of 12-1-1 while going 11-3 against the spread. They have now won their last 11 games, and it is hard to see any team ending this run short of a Grey Cup title.
Winnipeg made some noise with a SU seven-game run, but the Blue Bombers have now dropped their last two contests. The defending champion Edmonton Eskimos are an even 7-7 on the year, and Ottawa leads the East Division with a record of 6-6-1. Unless something dramatic happens between now and late November, its lights out, game over 'north of the border' with the Stampeders raising the Grey Cup.
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This does not mean that you still cannot make some good money betting on the CFL, and I have turned my attention to one of two games on Monday's slate for this week's free pick for Doc's Sports.
CFL Week 16 Betting Overview
Saskatchewan has just three SU wins this season, but two have come in its last two games and it is 5-0 ATS in its last five outings. The Roughriders will go on the road this Friday to face Ottawa as 6.5-point underdogs, and the total for this game has been set at 53. The RedBlacks have lost four of their last six games both SU and ATS and the total has stayed "under" in five of their last eight contests.
One of the Roughriders' three wins this season came against Ottawa on July 22 with a 30-39 victory as 6.5-point home underdogs. The total went well "over" the 54-point total line.
The battle for second place in the West Division heats up this Saturday with British Columbia going on the road to face Winnipeg. The Lions are 9-4 SU (10-3 ATS) on the year with a 4-1 record (SU and ATS) in their last five games. BetOnline has them listed as slight 1.5-point underdogs against the Blue Bombers (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) with the total set at 54.5.
This will be the first of a home-and-home series. BC comes in with a SU 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings, but it falls to 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against Winnipeg. The total has stayed under in three of the last five meetings.
In one of two Monday games in the CFL, Calgary will look to keep its winning streak alive as a heavy nine-point road favorite against Toronto. The total line for this inter-division clash has been set at 52.5. While the Stampeders have not lost since opening day, the Argonauts have just one win both SU and ATS in their last eight outings.
This will be the first meeting this season. And even though Calgary brings a SU 5-1 edge in the last six meetings into Monday's matchup, it is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games against Toronto.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes
Edmonton has been able to works its way back into the playoff picture as a possible crossover team from the West with a pair of wins (SU and ATS) against BC at home and Winnipeg on the road in its last two games. The Eskimos (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) still have one of the most potent scoring offenses in the CFL with an average of 29.6 points a game. Mike Reilly leads the league in total passing yards (4,708), and Adarius Bowman has 1,497 receiving yards and eight touchdown catches. The main problem with this team all season long has been a defense that is allowing an average of 28.6 points a game.
Montreal finally showed some signs of life on offense with Rakeem Cato at quarterback in last week's surprisingly easy 38-11 victory against Toronto as a three-point home favorite. This snapped a SU four-game losing streak. The Alouettes have been hit or miss all season long, but they have averaged 36 points in their four SU wins this year.
The Eskimos come into Monday's game as three-point road favorites, but the betting line I am focused on is the total at 51.5. It has been bet down from 52.5 points, and that is the right direction for me. I see both of these quarterbacks having success moving the ball downfield through the air, and that should add up to points for each side. The first time these two teams met this season Edmonton grinded out a 23-12 victory against a total line of 51.5, but that will not be the case this time around.
The total in this inter-division tilt has gone over in seven of the last 10 meetings and it has gone over in five of the Eskimos last seven games overall behind a scoring average of 31.5 points per game. Another trend to keep in mind is that the total has gone over in Edmonton's last five games following a SU win and it has also gone over in four of Montreal's last five games after posting a SU win in its previous outing.
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