Calgary did its part in last week's top CFL pick on the "over" in a matchup against Saskatchewan with 35 points, but the Roughriders' 15 points kept this game "under" 57.5 points on the closing line. The total has favored the under through the first seven weeks of the CFL season, but one of the most profitable bets is still with the underdog against the spread as it's paying off at 66.7 percent.
Moving on to this week's top free CFL play for Doc's Sports, I have my eye on a road underdog that is in perfect shape to capitalize on what I see as an inflated pointspread by the oddsmakers.
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CFL Week 8 Betting Overview
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have paid off as underdogs in a big way the past two weeks with straight up upsets against Edmonton on the road and Hamilton at home. This Friday night they will travel to Toronto to face the Argonauts as four-point underdogs, with the total set at 50 points.
Toronto has won six of the last seven matchups against Winnipeg SU, and it has a 5-1-1 edge ATS. The total stayed under in both meetings last season, and it has stayed under in 10 of the Argonauts' last 12 games overall.
In the first of a Saturday night CFL double-header, Calgary and Saskatchewan will play the backend of a home-and-home series, with the Stampeders listed as six-point road favorites to pull off the sweep. The betting line for the total in this game has been set at 55.
Calgary has gotten the best of things in this West Division rivalry in recent seasons with a SU 7-1 record in the last eight meetings, including last week's win as a 10-point home favorite. This raised the Stampeders' record to 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Roughriders. The total stayed under after going over in the previous four games in this series.
Saturday's late game is an interdivision clash between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the British Columbia Lions, with BC favored by three points at home. The total for this game has been set at 54.5.
The Tiger-Cats have been a tough team to figure out this season at an even 3-3 both SU and ATS. One of those losses was a 28-3 pounding at the hands of the Lions as 5.5-point home favorites on July 1. The total stayed under the closing 50.5-point line in that game, and it was the first time that the road team won SU in the past seven meetings.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Montreal Alouettes at Edmonton Eskimos
Montreal is off to a somewhat expected 2-4 start (SU and ATS) after winning just six games all last season, but it has taken some steps in the right direction. With quarterback Kevin Glenn at his best, the Alouettes ran all over Saskatchewan two weeks ago in a 41-3 romp as two-point home favorites. They hung tough against BC last week before giving up 15 unanswered fourth-quarter points in a 38-18 loss as one-point underdogs at home.
This Thursday night, Montreal will go back on the road as a seven-point underdog against the Eskimos with the total set at 51. The touchdown spread is more a product of an inflated view of Edmonton as the defending Grey Cup Champ, and it creates a perfect opportunity to jump on a bad line.
The Eskimos are also 2-4 SU with a costly 1-4-1 record ATS. They have now lost their last three games after falling to Ottawa 23-20 last week as 3.5-point road underdogs. Two of the three recent losses were on their home field, where a very porous defense was torched for a combined 67 points. Over the course of Edmonton's first six games this once-vaunted unit has given up an average of 31.2 points to its opponents.
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in Week 8, while Edmonton has fallen to 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. The Eskimos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
There is something fundamentally wrong with Edmonton at this point of the season, and I don't see things getting corrected on Thursday night. This opens the door for a play on Montreal plus the seven points as this week's free CFL pick.
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