Free CFL Picks Week 11 from Expert Canadian Football Handicapper
I didn't see Edmonton's meltdown against Saskatchewan coming with last week's free pick in what was probably the most shocking upset in the CFL this season. I think this upset was actually more of a case of the Roughriders being underrated as opposed to Edmonton being overrated. In light of this, I decided to go with Saskatchewan's key home game this week against Winnipeg for my free CFL pick of the week for Doc's.
CFL Week 11 Betting Overview
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In the first of four head-to-head division battles over the course of this extended holiday weekend, Thursday night's East Division tilt between Ottawa (3-6-1 SU) and Montreal (3-6 SU) gets things started early. The betting line for this game remains listed as a "pick", and the total has been set at 51 .
These two foes already faced one another in late July, with the RedBlacks coming away with a 24-19 victory as four-point home favorites. The total stayed "under" the 49.5-point closing line. Ottawa has now won six of the last seven meetings in this series both straight-up and against the spread, with the total staying under in three of the last four games.
Jumping all the way ahead to the first matchup in Monday's doubleheader as part of the Labor Day Holiday, 7-2 Edmonton will try and halt its two-game slide as a heavy 11-point road underdog against the 7-1-1 Calgary Stampeders. The total for this heated West Division rivalry has been set at 54.5 points.
The Stampeders bring a SU five-game winning streak into this matchup while going 4-0-1 ATS. They have a 7-3 edge both SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings, including a clean sweep both ways in last year's two-game set. The total has gone over in the last three games.
Later on Monday over in the East, winless Hamilton returns to action from last week's bye as a 4.5-point home underdog against the Toronto Argonauts (4-6 SU). The betting line for the total in this game has been set at 53.
Toronto opened this season with a 32-15 victory at home against the Tiger-Cats to cover as a 3.5-point favorite with the total staying under the closing 55.5-point line. Neither team has done well ATS lately with the Argonauts failing to cover in six of their last seven games while Hamilton sits at 2-6 ATS over the course of its SU eight-game losing streak.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders
Winnipeg will try and extend its current SU winning streak to six games as a 2.5-point road underdog for this Sunday's West Division clash against Saskatchewan. The total has been set at 61 points for this 4 p.m. (ET) start at Mosaic Stadium.
The Blue Bombers have been lighting up the scoreboard since Week 3 with at least 33 points scored in each of their last seven games. While this has led to six SU victories in those seven games while going 6-1 ATS, there is some genuine concern on the other side of the ball with a defense that is allowing an average of 30.9 points per game. This continues to put some tremendous pressure on quarterback Matt Nichols and the offense to keep pace, so it is easy to see why the total has gone over in seven of Winnipeg's first nine games.
Saskatchewan has been able to shake off a slow 1-3 SU start to win three of its last four games. Last week's 54-point explosion on the scoreboard was aided by two interception returns for touchdowns, but you can't take anything away from quarterback Kevin Glenn's ability to help this offense put points on the board. While he is ranked seventh in the CFL in total passing yards (2,344), he jumps to third in passing touchdowns (16). The Roughriders have been especially effective scoring at home this season with an average of 39 points in four games while going 3-1 both SU and ATS.
Winnipeg is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games played in the month of September, while the Roughriders boast a perfect 5-0 record ATS in their last five games in this month. Head-to-head in this matchup, the Blue Bombers have a SU 5-1 edge in the last six meetings but the series is tied 3-3 ATS. The total has gone over in the last seven meetings in Saskatchewan. Winnipeg outlasted its rival 43-40 in overtime back on July 1 as a slight 1.5-point road underdog in a game that easily went over the 51-point closing line.
I would probably make this game a parlay pick with the front end being a play on the over despite the inflated total line. On the backend, I would go with the Roughriders to avenge that earlier loss by covering the 2.5 points at home this time around.
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