The new CFL regular season is three weeks old, and the underdogs continue to pay out at a high rate with a 10-2 record against the spread. I went with the "over" 56 as my top pick last week in Calgary's 29-10 victory against Winnipeg, but the Blue Bombers' offense was never able to get in gear. Week 4 is filled with inter-division battles and I have found one that should pay off as my free pick.
CFL Week 4 Betting Overview
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This Thursday night the Toronto Argonauts will go on the road to face Winnipeg as three-point road underdogs, and the total for this East/West clash has been set at 52.5. Toronto is coming off a big 26-25 upset of Ottawa as a four-point road underdog last week, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight-up win.
The Blue Bombers have gone 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games closing as favorites, and the total has gone over in four of their last five games when favored. Head-to-head, this series is tied 3-3 both SU and ATS in the last six meetings with the total going over in four of those contests.
Friday's CFL action features another East/West tilt between the Ottawa RedBlacks and the Edmonton Eskimos. Edmonton is currently favored by six points at home, and the betting line for the total in this game has been set at 57.5 points. Ottawa's defense of last year's Grey Cup title is off to a shaky 0-2-1 SU start, but it comes into this game with a 10-3 record ATS in its last 13 road games.
The Eskimos are off to a 2-0 SU start with victories against British Columbia on the road and Montreal at home. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye. In this matchup, Ottawa has won the last three meetings SU with a 2-1 edge ATS.
Week 4 closes things out with Saturday's inter-division clash between BC and Hamilton, with the Lions favored by three points on the road and the total set at 50 points. BC bounced back from that Week 1 loss to Edmonton at home with road victories against Toronto and Montreal. It is now 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games.
Hamilton is still looking for its first victory of the year following losses to Toronto and Saskatchewan on the road both SU and ATS. However, the Tiger-Cats have failed to cover in their last six home games. The Lions have won four of the last six meetings SU, and they have a 5-1 edge ATS.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes
Calgary comes into Friday night's road game against Montreal as a 5.5-point road favorite in a 7 p.m. (ET) start at Percival-Molson Stadium. The total line in this West vs. East matchup is set at 48.5 points.
The Stampeders failed to cover in each game of their home-and-home series against Ottawa to start the season, but they had no trouble covering the 3.5 points on the road last week in that 19-point victory against Winnipeg. They are now 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
With Bo Levi Mitchell under center and Jerome Messam running the ball, Calgary's offense has picked up where it left off last season as the CFL's highest-scoring team with an average of 34.3 points through its first three games. What was most impressive about last week's win was the way the Stampeders' defense was able to step up its game after allowing a combined 70 points in those first two contests against the RedBlacks.
Montreal has lost its last two games to BC at home and Edmonton on the road after opening the new season with a hard-fought 17-16 victory against Saskatchewan as a seven-point favorite at home. The Alouettes have been a tough team to bet on at home with a 3-11 record ATS in the last 14 games they have played on their home field.
Veteran quarterback Darian Durant has played well in his first three starts for Montreal, and Tyrell Sutton leads the league in rushing with 210 yards, but this has not translated to points on the scoreboard with fewer than 20 in each of the first three games. The Alouettes can still rely heavily on a defense that is giving up just 20.7 points per game.
Head-to-head in this matchup, Montreal has actually been able to cover in the last five meetings while holding a 3-2 SU edge, but I am still going with Calgary to win and cover the current 5.5-point spread this Friday night. The Stampeders have just too much firepower on offense and I like their defense's chances to keep the Alouettes out of the end zone for most of the game.
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